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CAPX 2020 <br />INTERIM REPORT <br />DECEMBER 2004 <br />Attachment A <br />FORECASTED NEED <br />Utilities constantly assess how much customer demand for electricity will grow each year <br />and what their generation and transmission capacity must be to ensure a reliable, low-cost, <br />adequate supply of electricity. Most Minnesota utilities calculate their future demand and <br />describe the ways they plan to meet that demand in the resource plans filed with and <br />reviewed by the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (PUC) every two years. <br />Resource plans include a utility's 15-year load forecast, its forecast for demand-side <br />management impacts-those load management and conservation programs used to reduce <br />peak demand, encourage energy conservation and improve energy efficiency-as well as <br />how they are meeting other regulatory and legislative requirements. Resource plans are <br />available to the public from the Minnesota PUC. Many utilities also make theirs available on <br />their Web sites. <br />In addition, Minnesota utilities annually submit reports of their estimated load and capability <br />-how much electricity their customers will demand in the future and what generation <br />facilities they will use to meet that demand - to the North American Electric Reliability <br />Council (NERC) through the Mid-Continent Area Power Pool (MAPP). Through this <br />submission, NERC assesses whether enough electricity is available to meet customer demand <br />during the next season. This report is available on the MAPP Web site at www.mapp.org. <br />Like resource and generation planning, transmission planning begins with a projection of <br />future customer needs. To this end, the CapX 2020 technical team chose the MAPP 2004 <br />Series, 2009 summer peak model, as the base model to begin scaling loads to the anticipated <br />2020 load level. To accurately mode120201oads, the technical team used individual <br />company load growth from the 2004 MAPP Load and Capability Report for the following <br />company control areas: Alliant Energy (west), Xcel Energy (north), Southern Minnesota <br />Municipal Power Agency, Otter Tail Power Company (includes Minnkota Power <br />Cooperative and Missouri River Energy Services) and Dairyland Power Cooperative. <br />Minnesota Power and Great River Energy's loads were scaled based on their most recent <br />resource plan filings. <br />Table 1 shows the CapX 2020 technical team's projection of future customer needs. <br />8 <br />