|
.,
<br />a
<br />5
<br />a
<br />a
<br />!3
<br />°o
<br />U
<br />V
<br />a
<br />a
<br />to
<br />I.5
<br />Ata~a~Merie Metkaoe
<br />Is Leveling
<br />lflf8 1N3 I~fO il~S 2N0
<br />Year
<br />Figure 20: Global atmospheric methane concentration in parts per million
<br />between 1982 and 2004 (94).
<br />strong greenhouse gas. Any comparable temperature increase from
<br />another cause would produce the same calculated outcome.
<br />Thus, the 3,000-year temperature record illustrated in Figure 1
<br />also provides a test of the computer models. The historical tempera-
<br />ture record shows that the Earth has previously warmed far more
<br />than could be caused by CO2 itself. Since these past warming cycles
<br />have not initiated water-vapor-mediated atmospheric warming catas-
<br />trophes, it is evident that weaker effects from CO2 cannot do so.
<br />Methane is also a minor greenhouse gas. World CH4 levels are, as
<br />shown in Figure 20, leveling off. In the U.S. in 2005, 42% of hu-
<br />man-produced methane was from hydrocarbon energy production,
<br />28% from waste management, and 30% from agriculture (95). The
<br />total amount of CH4 produced from these U.S. sources decreased 7%
<br />between 1980 and 2005. Moreover, the record shows that, even
<br />while methane was increasing, temperature trends were benign.
<br />The "human-caused global warnming" -often called the "global
<br />warnvng" -hypothesis depends entirely upon computer model-gen-
<br />erated scenazios of the future. There are no empirical records that
<br />verify either these models or their flawed predictions (96).
<br />Claims (97) of an epidemic of insect-home diseases, extensive
<br />species extinction, catastrophic flooding of Pacific islands, ocean
<br />acidification, increased numbers and severities of hurricanes and tor-
<br />nados, and increased human heat deaths from the 0.5 °C per century
<br />temperature rise are not consistent with actual observations. The "hu-
<br />man-caused global wamming" hypothesis and the computer calcula-
<br />tions that support it are in error. They have no empirical support and
<br />aze invalidated by numerous observations.
<br />WORLD TEMPERATURE CONTROL
<br />World temperature is controlled by natural phenomena. What
<br />steps could mankind take if solar activity or other effects began to
<br />shift the Earth toward temperatures too cold or too warn for opti-
<br />mum human life?
<br />Fitst, it would be necessary to detemune what temperature hu-
<br />mans feel is optimum. It is unlikely that the chosen temperature
<br />would be exactly that which we have today. Second, we would be
<br />fortunate if natural forces were to make the Earth too warm rather
<br />than too cold because we can cool the Earth with relative ease. We
<br />have no means by which to warm it. Attempting to warm the Earth
<br />with addition of C02 or to cool the Earth by restrictions of CO2 and
<br />hydrocarbon use would, however, be futile. Neither would work.
<br />Inexpensively blocking the sun by means of particles in the upper
<br />atmosphere would be effective. S.S. Penner, A.M. Schneider, and E.
<br />M. Kennedy have proposed (98) that the exhaust systems of com-
<br />mercial airliners could be tuned in such a way as to eject particulate
<br />sun-blocking material into the upper atmosphere. Later, Edward
<br />Teller similarly suggested (18) that particles could be injected into
<br />the atmosphere in order to reduce solar heating and cool the Earth.
<br />Teller estimated a cost of between $500 million and $1 billion per
<br />year for between 1 °C and 3 °C of cooling. Both methods use parti-
<br />cles so small that they would be invisible from the Earth.
<br />These methods would be effective and economical in blocking
<br />solar radiation and reducing atmospheric and surface temperatures.
<br />There are other similar proposals (99). World energy rationing, on
<br />the other hand, would not work.
<br />The climate of the Earth is now benign. If temperatures become
<br />too warm, this can easily be corrected. If they become too cold, we
<br />have no means of response -except to maximize nucleaz and hydro-
<br />carbon energy production and technological advance. This would
<br />help humanity adapt and might lead to new mitigation technology.
<br />FERTILIZATION OF PLANTS BY COZ
<br />How high will the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere ulti-
<br />mately rise if mankind continues to increase the use of coal, oil, and
<br />natural gas`? At ultimate equilibrium with the ocean and other reser-
<br />voirs there will probably be very little increase. The current rise is a
<br />non-equilibrium result of the rate of approach to equilibrium.
<br />One reservoir that would moderate the increase is especially im-
<br />portant. Plant life provides a large sink for CO2. Using current
<br />knowledge about the increased growth rates of plants and assuming
<br />increased CO2 release as compazed to current emissions, it has been
<br />estimated that atmospheric CO2 levels may rise to about 600 ppm be-
<br />fore leveling off. At that level, CO2 absorption by increased Earth
<br />biomass is able to absorb about 10 Gt C per year (100). At present,
<br />this absorption is estimated to be about 3 Gt C per year (57).
<br />About 30% of this projected rise from 295 to 600 ppm has al-
<br />ready taken place, without causing unfavorable climate changes.
<br />Moreover, the radiative effects of CO2 are logarithmic (101,102), so
<br />more than 40% of any climatic influences have already occurred.
<br />As atmospheric CO2 increases, plant growth rates increase. Also,
<br />leaves transpire less and lose less water as CO2 increases, so that
<br />plants are able to grow under drier conditions. Animal life, which de-
<br />pends upon plant life for food, increases proportionally.
<br />Figures 21 to 24 show examples of experimentally measured in-
<br />creases in the growth of plants. These examples are representative of
<br />a very large reseazch literature on this subject (103-109). As Figure
<br />21 shows, long-lived 1,000- to 2,000-year-old pine trees have shown
<br />a sharp increase in growth during the past half-century. Figure 22
<br />shows the 40% increase in the forests of the United States that has
<br />ffi
<br />8
<br />L
<br />W
<br />0
<br />C
<br />a~
<br />rn
<br />z.a
<br />a Long-lived Trees b
<br />1.5 are Growie6 Faster
<br />I.t
<br />~.S
<br />~~
<br />-~.S
<br />_t_a
<br />S00 lON 13N 2N0 ION 13N 20N
<br />Year Year
<br />Figure 21: Standard deviation from the mean of tree ring widths for (a)
<br />bristlecone pine, limber pine, and fox tail pine in the Great Basin of Califor-
<br />nia, Nevada, and Arizona and (b) bristlecone pine in Colorado (110). Tree
<br />ring widths were averaged in 20-yeaz segments and then normalized so that
<br />the means of prior tree growth were zero. The deviations from the means are
<br />shown in units of standard deviations of those means.
<br />-8-
<br />
|