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CLIMATE CHANGE
<br />While the average temperature change taking place as the Earth
<br />recovers from the Little Ice Age is so slight that it is difficult to dis-
<br />cern, its environmental effects are measurable. Glacier shortening
<br />and the 7 inches per century rise in sea level are examples. There are
<br />additional climate changes that are correlated with this rise in temper-
<br />ature and may be caused by it.
<br />Greenland, for example, is beginning to turn green again, as it
<br />was 1,000 years ago during the Medieval Climate Optimum (11).
<br />Arctic sea ice is decreasing somewhat (75), but Antarctic ice is not
<br />decreasing and may be increasing, due to increased snow (76-79).
<br />In the United States, rainfall is increasing at about 1.8 inches per
<br />century, and the number of severe tornados is decreasing, as shown
<br />in Figures 7 and 8. If world temperatures continue to rise at the cur-
<br />rent rate, they will reach those of the Medieval Climate Optimum
<br />about 2 centuries from now. Historical reports of that period record
<br />the growing of wane weather crops in localities too cold for that pur-
<br />pose today, so it is to be expected that the area of more temperate cli-
<br />mate will expand as it did then. This is aheady being observed, as
<br />studies at higher altitudes have reported increases in amount and di-
<br />versity of plant and animal life by more than 50% (12,80).
<br />Atmospheric temperature is increasing more in the Northern
<br />Hemisphere than in the Southern, with intermediate periods of in-
<br />crease and decrease in the overall trends.
<br />There has been no increase in frequency or severity of Atlantic
<br />hurricanes during the period of 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use,
<br />as is illustrated in Figures 9 and 10. Numbers of violent hurricanes
<br />vary greatly from year to year and are no greater now than they were
<br />50 years ago. Similarly, maximum wind speeds have not increased.
<br />All of the observed climate changes are gradual, moderate, and
<br />entirely within the bounds of ordinary natural changes that have oc-
<br />curred during the benign period of the past few thousand years.
<br />There is no indication whatever in the experimental data that an
<br />abrupt or remarkable change in any of the ordinary natural climate
<br />variables is beginning or will begin to take place.
<br />GLOBAL WARMING HYPOTHESIS
<br />The greenhouse effect amplifies solar warming of the earth.
<br />Greenhouse gases such as H2O, CO2, and CHq in the Earth's atmo-
<br />sphere, through combined convective readjustments and the radiative
<br />blanketing effect, essentially decrease the net escape of terrestrial
<br />thermal infrared radiation. Increasing CO2, therefore, effectively in-
<br />creases radiative energy input to the Earth's atmosphere. The path of
<br />this radiative input is complex. It is redistributed, both vertically and
<br />horizontally, by various physical processes, including advection,
<br />convection, and diffusion in the atmosphere and ocean.
<br />When an increase in COZ increases the radiative input to the at-
<br />mosphere, how and in which direction does the atmosphere respond?
<br />Hypotheses about this response differ and are schematically shown
<br />in Figure 18. Without the water-vapor greenhouse effect, the Earth
<br />would be about 14 °C cooler (81). The radiative contribution of dou-
<br />bling atmospheric COZ is minor, but this radiative greenhouse effect
<br />is treated quite differently by different climate hypotheses. The hy-
<br />potheses that the IPCC (82,83) has chosen to adopt predict that the
<br />effect of C02 is amplified by the atmosphere, especially by water va-
<br />por, to produce a large temperature increase. Other hypotheses,
<br />shown as hypothesis 2, predict the opposite -that the atmospheric re-
<br />sponse will counteract the COZ increase and result in insignificant
<br />changes in global temperature (81,84,85,91,92). The experimental
<br />evidence, as described above, favors hypothesis 2. While COZ has
<br />increased substantially, its effect on temperature has been so slight
<br />that it has not been experimentally detected.
<br />The computer climate models upon which "human-caused global
<br />warming" is based have substantial uncertainties and are markedly
<br />unreliable. This is not surprising, since the climate is a coupled,
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<br />Hypothetkal Effects
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<br />Effect of CO= Hypothesis 2
<br />Figure 18: Qualitative illustration of greenhouse warming. "Present GHE" is
<br />the current greenhouse effect from all atmospheric phenomena. "Radiative
<br />effect of COZ" is the added greenhouse radiative effect from doubling COZ
<br />without consideration of other atmospheric components. "Hypothesis 1
<br />IPCC" is the hypothetical amplification effect assumed by II'CC. "Hypothe-
<br />sis 2" is the hypothetical moderation effect.
<br />non-linear dynamical system. It is very complex. Figure 19 illustrates
<br />the difficulties by comparing the radiative COZ greenhouse effect
<br />with correction factors and uncertainties in some of the parameters in
<br />the computer climate calculations. Other factors, too, such as the
<br />chemical and climatic influence of volcanoes, cannot now be reliably
<br />computer modeled.
<br />In effect, an experiment has been performed on the Earth during
<br />the past half-century - an experiment that includes all of the complex
<br />factors and feedback effects that determine the Earth's temperature
<br />and climate. Since 1940, hydrocarbon use has risen 6-fold. Yet, this
<br />rise has had no effect on the temperature trends, which have contin-
<br />ued their cycle of recovery from the Little Ice Age in close correla-
<br />tion with increasing solar activity.
<br />Not only has the global warming hypothesis failed experimental
<br />tests, it is theoretically flawed as well. It can reasonably be argued
<br />that cooling from negative physical and biological feedbacks to
<br />greenhouse gases nullifies the slight initial temperature rise (84,86).
<br />The reasons for this failure of the computer climate models are
<br />subjects of scientific debate (87). For example, water vapor is the
<br />largest contributor to the overall greenhouse effect (88). It has been
<br />suggested that the climate models treat feedbacks from clouds, water
<br />vapor, and related hydrology incorrectly (85,89-92).
<br />The global warming hypothesis with respect to COZ is not based
<br />upon the radiative properties of COZ itself, which is a very weak
<br />greenhouse gas. It is based upon a small initial increase in tempera-
<br />ture caused by COZ and a large theoretical amplification of that tem-
<br />perature increase, primarily through increased evaporation of H2O, a
<br />Oceaa Surface
<br />Flux
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<br /> (Doubled COZ)
<br />Figure 19: The radiative greenhouse effect of doubling the concentration of
<br />atmospheric COZ (right baz) as compazed with four of the uncertainties in the
<br />computer climate models (87,93).
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