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Income per Capita <br /> Both historical and projected income data come from Woods and <br /> Poole Economics' Minnesota State Profile 2017 State and County <br /> Projections to 2050. This data is provided at the county level. The <br /> MMPA9 model uses a weighted average income variable, created by <br /> weighting each of those nine member cities' income per capita by <br /> the city's annual energy usage. <br /> Population <br /> Historical population data from 1988 to 2016 comes from the <br /> Minnesota State Demographic Center and the Metropolitan Council <br /> Historic Household and Population Estimates. Data was <br /> unavailable for the year 1989, so linear smoothing of 1988 and 1990 <br /> data was used. Population projections from 2019 to 2033 are based <br /> on actual data for 2016, annually increased by long term county <br /> population growth rates calculated from Woods and Poole <br /> projections. <br /> All explanatory variables listed above were used in the MMPA9 <br /> model. For the East Grand Forks model, CDD and population were <br /> excluded because of low t-stat results. Minimal air conditioning <br /> load and a devastating 1997 flood likely explain the low t-stats for <br /> CDD and population,respectively. <br /> Each model used monthly data to forecast monthly energy, which <br /> was then aggregated to provide annual energy projections. <br /> Annual Energy Was Annual energy projections were decreased by 1.3% of the Agency's <br /> Reduced by three-year rolling average retail energy usage. This reduction <br /> Conservation represents MMPA's assumption regarding new conservation <br /> measures. <br /> Conservation levels of 1.0% and 1.5%were also analyzed, but the <br /> 1.3%base case was used for the purposes of this IRP. Conservation <br /> reductions lowered the compounded annual growth rate by 1.0%, <br /> resulting in a net annual growth rate of 0.8% for the base case <br /> energy usage. <br /> Agency Energy Following adjustments for conservation,projected energy <br /> Requirements Were requirements were reduced by the energy that WAPA supplies to <br /> Reduced By WAPA- two MMPA member cities (Olivia and East Grand Forks). These <br /> Supplied Energy WAPA allocations were assumed to remain at current levels <br /> throughout the projection period. <br /> 114 <br />