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Appendix A. Load Projection Methodology <br /> This appendix describes the methodology used to project MMPA's <br /> energy and demand requirements for this Integrated Resource Plan. <br /> Members' Energy MMPA member energy usage was projected using linear regression <br /> Usage Was Projected analysis. The energy usage for three of MMPA's member cities <br /> with A Linear (East Grand Forks, Buffalo, and Elk River)was projected separately <br /> Regression Model from that of the other nine members. Those four projections were <br /> then combined to obtain the entire Agency's projected energy. The <br /> MMPA9 projection includes the member cities of Anoka, Arlington, <br /> Brownton, Chaska, Le Sueur,North St. Paul, Olivia, Shakopee and <br /> Winthrop. The historical monthly energy data sets for these four <br /> projections are as follows: <br /> • MMPA9: Monthly energy usage from 1996-2017 <br /> • East Grand Forks: Monthly energy usage from 1996-2017 <br /> • Buffalo: Monthly energy usage from 2000-2017 <br /> • Elk River: Monthly energy usage from 2004-2017 <br /> Data constraints for East Grand Forks and Buffalo prompted the <br /> separate projections for those cities. Elk River was projected <br /> separately because MMPA begins serving its load in October 2018. <br /> Total MMPA energy requirements were projected by adding the <br /> results of these four regression models. <br /> Throughout this appendix, all 12 MMPA member cities are referred <br /> to as MMPA12 and all 11 MMPA member cities, excluding Elk <br /> River, are referred to as MMPA11. <br /> Explanatory The explanatory variables used for the regression models were <br /> Variables for Energy weather, income, and population. <br /> Projections Were <br /> Weather,Income, Weather <br /> And Population Cooling degree days (CDD) and heating degree days (HDD)were <br /> both used as explanatory variables. All CDD and HDD data is <br /> supplied by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration <br /> (NOAA). Historical CDD and HDD data for all member <br /> communities, except East Grand Forks, comes from the <br /> Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport weather station. <br /> Historical CDD and HDD data for the East Grand Forks model <br /> comes from the Fargo weather station(the closest available). CDD <br /> and HDD projections are historical"normal" data from 1981-2010 <br /> (the latest"normal" data set available published by NOAA). <br /> 113 <br />