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Linear Regression A linear regression model was used to project energy usage for this <br /> Model Used to IRP. The variables in the model are: <br /> Project Energy <br /> • Weather(heating degree days and cooling degree days) <br /> • Population <br /> • Income per capita <br /> Details on the inputs and assumptions of the methodology can be <br /> found in Appendix A. <br /> Projected 1.8% MMPA's projected energy growth rate without new conservation is <br /> Energy Growth 1.8% for the 2019-2033 projection period. The following graph <br /> Rate without New shows historical and projected MMPA base energy requirements, <br /> Conservation without conservation adjustments, for the period 2004 to 2033. <br /> Minnesota Municipal Power Agency <br /> Historical& Projected Base Member <br /> Energy Requirements (MWh) Without Conservation <br /> 3,000.000 <br /> 2,500,000 <br /> 2,000.000 <br /> 1,500,000 <br /> 1,000,000 <br /> Historical Projected <br /> 500.000 <br /> 0 <br /> CO 1�pb��`O��;• L�1, Li`l ti�~4 ti�LO ti�yL ti�•14 ti�y ti�1 ti��O ,s'1, <br /> New Conservation New conservation measures are assumed to reduce the Agency's <br /> Assumed to Reduce annual energy growth rate by approximately 1.0%. For further <br /> Annual Energy clarification,the base case of 1.3%conservation does not translate <br /> Growth Rate into a 1.3%reduction in the energy growth rate because the <br /> By 1.0% requirements for CIP savings calculations are based upon a lagging <br /> 3-year average of MMPA's energy consumption. MMPA's current <br /> level of energy conservation is built into the historical energy usage <br /> data that is an input into the linear regression model. Section 6 <br /> discusses in detail MMPA's current and future conservation efforts. <br /> 83 <br />