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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />Demand Estimate for Assisted Living Housing <br />TABLE HD -7 <br />MARKET RATE ASSISTED LIVING DEMAND <br />ELK RIVER <br />2017 & 2022 <br />Percent <br />Number Percent <br />Number <br />Needing <br />Needing Needing <br />Needing <br />Age group People Assistance' <br />Assistance' People Assistance' <br />Assistance' <br />75-79 432 25.5% <br />110 597 25.5% <br />152 <br />80-84 296 33.6% <br />99 326 33.6% <br />110 <br />85+ 343 51.6% <br />177 345 51.6% <br />178 <br />Total 1,071 <br />387 1,268 <br />440 <br />Percent Income-Qualified2 <br />53% <br />53% <br />Total potential market <br />205 <br />233 <br />(times) Percent living alone x <br />53% <br />53% <br />(equals) Age/income-qualified singles needing assistance = <br />109 <br />124 <br />(plus) Proportion of demand from couples (12%)3 + <br />15 <br />17 <br />(equals) Total age/income-qualified market needing assistance = <br />123 <br />140 <br />(times) Potential penetration rate x <br />40% <br />40% <br />(equals) Potential demand from PMA residents = <br />49 <br />56 <br />(plus) Proportion from outside the PMA (30%) + <br />21 <br />24 <br />(equals) Total potential assisted living demand = <br />71 <br />80 <br />(minus) Existing market rate assisted living unitss <br />56 <br />93 <br />(equals) Total excess market rate assisted living demand = <br />15 <br />0 <br />' The percentage of seniors needing assistance with ADLs, based on the 2005 panels of the Survey of Income and Program <br />Participation (SIPP) files, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. <br />z Includes households with incomes of $40,000 or more (who could afford <br />monthly rents of $4,000+ per month) plus <br />40% of the <br />estimated owner households with incomes below $50,000 (who will spend <br />down assets, including home -equity, in order to live <br />in assisted living housing). <br />3 The 2009 Overview of Assisted Living (a collaborative project of AAHSA, <br />ASHA, ALFA, NCAL & NIC) found that 12% of assisted <br />living residents are couples. <br />4 We estimate that 60% of the qualified market needing assistance with ADLs could either remain in their homes or reside at less <br />advanced senior housing with the assistance of a family member or home health care, or would need greater care <br />provided in a <br />skilled care facility. <br />s Existing and pending units at 93% occupancy. <br />Source: Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC. <br />We estimate an excess demand for 15 assisted living units in Elk River in 2017. By 2022, total <br />excess demand for market rate assisted living units in Elk River is projected to be absorbed by <br />the units at the Elk River Senior Living development under construction. <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 48 <br />