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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />Estimated Demand for Memory Care Housing <br />TABLE HD -8 <br />MEMORY CARE DEMAND <br />ELK RIVER <br />2017 & 2022 <br />65 to 74 Population <br />1,655 <br />1,984 <br />(times) Dementia Incidence Rate' <br />x <br />2% <br />x <br />2% <br />(equals) Estimated Age 65 to 74 Pop. with Dementia <br />= <br />33 <br />= <br />40 <br />75 to 84 Population <br />728 <br />923 <br />(times) Dementia Incidence Rate' <br />x <br />19% <br />x <br />19% <br />(equals) Estimated Age 75 to 84 Pop. with Dementia <br />= <br />138 <br />= <br />175 <br />85+ Population <br />343 <br />345 <br />(times) Dementia Incidence Rate' <br />x <br />42% <br />x <br />42% <br />(equals) Estimated Age 85+ Pop. with Dementia <br />= <br />144 <br />= <br />= <br />x <br />145 <br />360 <br />45% <br />(equals) Total Senior Population with Dementia <br />= 315 <br />(times) Percent Income/Asset-Qualified2 <br />x 45% <br />(equals) Total Income -Qualified Market Base <br />= <br />142 <br />= <br />162 <br />(times) Percent Needing Specialized Memory Care Assistance <br />x <br />25% <br />x <br />25% <br />(equals) Total Need for Dementia Care <br />= <br />35 <br />= <br />40 <br />(plus) Demand from Outside Market Area (30%) <br />+ <br />15 <br />+ <br />17 <br />Total Demand Potential <br />= <br />51 <br />58 <br />(minus) Existing and Pending Memory Care Units3 <br />- <br />28 <br />- <br />50 <br />(equals) Excess Demand for Memory Care Units <br />= <br />23 <br />= <br />8 <br />' Alzheimer's Association: Alzheimer's Disease Facts & Figures (2009) <br />2 Income -qualified households consider 3/4 of those with incomes greater than $60,000 plus 15% of homeowners with <br />incomes below this threshold. <br />3 Existing memory care units less units occupied by public pay residents and a 7% vacancy rate. <br />Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC <br />We estimate the excess demand for memory care units in Elk River to be 23 units in 2017. Fol- <br />lowing the same methodology, demand is calculated to decrease to 8 memory care units <br />through 2022 after accounting for the units under construction at the Elk River Senior Living de- <br />velopment. <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 49 <br />