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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />Estimated Demand for Congregate Senior Housing <br />TABLE HD -6 <br />MARKET RATE CONGREGATE HOUSING DEMAND <br />ELK RIVER <br />2017 & 2022 <br /># of Households w/ Incomes of >$35,000' <br /># of Households w/ Incomes of $25,000 to $34,999' <br />(times) Homeownership Rate <br />(equals) Potential Market <br />(equals) Total Potential Market Base <br />(times) Potential Capture Rate <br />(equals) Demand Potential <br />Potential Demand from Market Area Residents <br />(plus) Demand from Outside Market Area (25%) <br />(equals) Total Demand Potential <br />(minus) Existing and Pending Congregate Units3 <br />(equals) Excess Demand for Congregate Units <br />Age of <br />Householder <br />65-74 75+ <br />741 380 <br />+ 83 103 <br />x 88% 63% <br />= 73 65 <br />Age of <br />Householder <br />65-74 75+ <br />849 401 <br />+ 89 115 <br />x 88% 63% <br />= 78 72 <br />814 445 = 927 473 <br />x 1.5% 13.0% x 1.5% 13.0% <br />= 12 + 58 = 14 + 62 <br />= 70 = 75 <br />+ 23 + 25 <br />= 93 = 101 <br />0 34 <br />= 93 = 67 <br />' 2020 calculations define income -qualified households as all households with incomes greater than $40,000 and homeowner <br />households with incomes between $30,000 and $49,999. <br />2 The potential capture rate is derived from data from the Summary Health Statistics for the U.S. Population: National Health <br />Interview Survey, 2007 by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The capture rate used is the percentage of seniors <br />needing assistance with IADLs, but not ADLs (seniors needing assistance with ADLs typcially need assistance with multiple IADLs and <br />are primary candidates for assisted living.). <br />3 Existing and pending are deducted at market equilibrium (95% <br />occupancy). <br />Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC <br />We estimate a total demand calculated for 93 congregate units in Elk River in 2017. Adjusting <br />for inflation, we estimate that households with incomes of $40,000 or more and senior home- <br />owners with incomes between $35,000 and $39,999 would qualify for congregate housing in <br />2025. Following the same methodology and accounting for the units under construction at the <br />Elk River Senior Living development, demand is calculated to decline to 67 units through 2025 <br />in Elk River. <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 47 <br />