2. HRSR 02-01-2016 - Laserfiche WebLink

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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS residents in assisted living were couples. There are a total of 108 age/income-qualified seniors needing assistance in the PMA including both couples and singles. We estimate that roughly 60% of the qualified market needing significant assistance with ADLs would either remain in their homes or less service-intensive senior housing with the assistance of a family member or home health care, or would need greater care provided in a skilled care facility. The remaining 40%could be served by assisted living housing. Applying this potential market penetration rate of 40% results in demand for 49 assisted living units in 2010. We estimate that a portion of demand for assisted living units in the PMA (40%) will come from outside the PMA. Applying this figure results in total potential demand for 82 market rate assisted living units in the PMA. Next, existing assisted living units are subtracted from overall demand. We have adjusted the competitive number of units based on an estimated 15%of units that are occupied by lower- income seniors using the Elderly Waiver program, to pay for their services in an assisted living environment. Overall, we subtract 47 competitive units (after accounting for a 7%vacancy rate) from the demand potential, resulting in 35 units of excess demand for assisted living housing in the PMA. By 2020,total excess demand for market rate assisted living units in Elk River is projected to increase to 47 units. Estimated Demand for Memory Care Housing Table HD-8 presents our demand calculations for market rate memory care senior housing in Elk River in 2015 and 20120. Demand is calculated by starting with the estimated Elk River senior (age 65+) population in 2015 and multiplying by the incidence rate of Alzheimer's/dementia among this population's age cohorts. According to the Alzheimer's Association (Alzheimer's Disease Facts and Figures, 2007), 2%of seniors ages 65 to 74, 19%of seniors ages 75 to 84, and 42%of seniors ages 85+ are inflicted with Alzheimer's Disease. This yields a potential market of 299 seniors in Elk River. Because of the staff-intensive nature of dementia care, typical monthly fees for this type of housing are at least $4,000 and range upwards of$5,000 when including service packages. Based on our review of senior household incomes in Elk River, homeownership rates and home sale data, we estimate that 30%of seniors in Elk River would have incomes and/or assets to sufficiently cover the costs of memory care housing. This figure takes into account married couple households where one spouse may have memory care needs and allows for a sufficient income for the other spouse to live independently. Multiplying the number of seniors with MAXFIELD RESEARCH&CONSULTING,LLC 94