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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br /> Alzheimer's/dementia (299 seniors) by the income-qualified percentage results in a total of 111 <br /> age/income-qualified seniors in the Elk River in 2015. <br /> TABLE HD-8 <br /> MEMORY CARE DEMAND <br /> ELK RIVER <br /> 2015&2020 <br /> 2015 2020 <br /> 65 to 74 Population 1,500 1,904 <br /> (times) Dementia Incidence Rate' x 2% x 2% <br /> (equals) Estimated Age 65 to 74 Pop.with Dementia = 30 = 38 <br /> 75 to 84 Population 701 858 <br /> (times)Dementia Incidence Rate' x 19% x 19% <br /> (equals) Estimated Age 75 to 84 Pop.with Dementia = 133 = 163 <br /> 85+Population 323 363 <br /> (times)Dementia Incidence Rate' x 42% x 42% <br /> (equals) Estimated Age 85+Pop.with Dementia = 136 = 152 <br /> (equals)Total Senior Population with Dementia = 299 = 354 <br /> (times) Percent Income/Asset-Qualified2 x 37% x 38% <br /> (equals)Total Income-Qualified Market Base = 111 = 134 <br /> (times) Percent Needing Specialized Memory Care Assistance x 25% x 25% <br /> (equals)Total Need for Dementia Care = 28 = 34 <br /> (plus) Demand from Outside Market Area(40%) + 18 + 22 <br /> Total Demand Potential = 46 56 <br /> (minus) Existing and Pending Memory Care Units3 - 28 - 28 <br /> (equals)Excess Demand for Memory Care Units = 18 = 28 <br /> 'Alzheimer's Association:Alzheimer's Disease Facts&Figures(2009) <br /> 2 Income-qualified households consider 3/4 of those with incomes greater than$60,000 plus 15%of homeowners with <br /> incomes below this threshold. <br /> 3 Existing memory care units less units occupied by public pay residents and a 7%vacancy rate. <br /> Source: Maxfield Research &Consulting, LLC <br /> According to data from the National Institute of Aging, about 25%of all individuals with <br /> memory care impairments comprise the market for memory care housing units. This figure <br /> considers that seniors in the early stages of dementia will be able to live independently with the <br /> care of a spouse or other family member, while those in the later stages of dementia will <br /> require intensive medical care that would only be available in skilled care facilities. Applying <br /> this figure to the estimated population with memory impairments yields a potential market of <br /> about 28 seniors in Elk River. <br /> MAXFIELD RESEARCH&CONSULTING,LLC 95 <br />