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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS months according to the 2009 Overview of Assisted Living). For each age group in Table HD-7, we estimate the income-qualified percentage to be all seniors in households with incomes above $40,000 (who could afford monthly rents of$3,000+ per month) plus 40%of the estimated seniors in homeowner households with incomes below$40,000 (who will spend down assets, including home-equity, in order to live in assisted living housing). This results in a total potential market of 211 units from the PMA in 2010. TABLE HD-7 MARKET RATE ASSISTED LIVING DEMAND ELK RIVER 2015&2020 2015 2020 Percent Number Percent Number Needing Needing Needing Needing Age group People Assistance' Assistance' People Assistance' Assistance' 75-79 394 25.5% 100 520 25.5% 133 80-84 307 33.6% 103 338 33.6% 114 85+ 323 51.6% 167 363 51.6% 187 Total 1,024 370 1,221 433 Percent Income-Qualified2 57% 56% Total potential market 211 243 (times)Percent living alone x 51% 51% (equals)Age/income-qualified singles needing assistance = 108 124 (plus)Proportion of demand from couples(12%)3 + 15 17 (equals)Total age/income-qualified market needing assistance = 122 141 (times)Potential penetration rate4 x 40% 40% (equals)Potential demand from PMA residents = 49 56 (plus)Proportion from outside the PMA(40%) + 33 38 (equals)Total potential assisted living demand = 82 94 (minus)Existing market rate assisted living units' - 47 47 (equals)Total excess market rate assisted living demand = 35 47 1 The percentage of seniors unable to perform or having difficulting with ADLs,based on the 2008 Survey of Income and Program Participation(SIPP)files,conducted by the U.S.Census Bureau. 2 Includes households with incomes of$40,000 or more(who could afford monthly rents of$3,000+per month)plus 40%of the estimated owner households with incomes below$40,000(who will spend down assets,including home-equity,in order to live in assisted living housing). 3 The 2009 Overview of Assisted Living(a collaborative project of AAHSA,ASHA,ALFA,NCAL&NIC)found that 12%of assisted living residents are couples. °We estimate that 60%of the qualified market needing assistance with ADLs could either remain in their homes or reside at less advanced senior housing with the assistance of a family member or home health care,or would need greater care provided in a skilled care facility. 5 Existing and pending units at 93%occupancy.We exclde 15%of units to be Home and Community Based Waiver recipients. Source: Maxfield Research&Consulting,LLC Because the vast majority of assisted living residents are single (88%according to the 2009 Overview of Assisted Living), our demand methodology multiplies the total potential market by the percentage of seniors age 75+ in the PMA living alone. Based on 2010 Census data, 51%of age 75+ households in the PMA lived alone. Applying this percentage results in a total base of 211 age/income-qualified singles. The 2009 Overview of Assisted Living found that 12%of MAXFIELD RESEARCH&CONSULTING,LLC 93