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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />TABLE HD-6 <br />MARKET RATE CONGREGATE HOUSING DEMAND <br />ELK RIVER <br />2015 & 2020 <br />20152020 <br />Age of Age of <br />HouseholderHouseholder <br />65-7475+65-7475+ <br />732430928489 <br /># of Households w/ Incomes of >$35,000¹ <br />778879113 <br /># of Households w/ Incomes of $25,000 to $34,999¹++ <br />84%63%84%63% <br />(times) Homeownership Ratexx <br />65556671 <br />(equals) Potential Market== <br />797485994560 <br />(equals) Total Potential Market Base== <br />1.5%11.0%1.5%11.0% <br />(times) Potential Capture Rate²xx <br />12531562 <br />(equals) Demand Potential =+=+ <br />6577 <br />Potential Demand from Market Area Residents== <br />2226 <br />(plus) Demand from Outside Market Area (25%)++ <br />87102 <br />(equals) Total Demand Potential== <br />3 <br />00 <br />(minus) Existing and Pending Congregate Units-- <br />87102 <br />(equals) Excess Demand for Congregate Units== <br />¹ 2020 calculations define income-qualified households as all households with incomes greater than$40,000 and homeowner <br />households with incomes between $30,000 and $49,999. <br />² The potential capture rate is derived from data from the Summary.S. Population: National Health <br />Interview Survey, 2007 by the U.S. Department of Health and Huma <br />needing assistance with IADLs, but not ADLs (seniors needing ass <br />are primary candidates for assisted living.). <br />3 <br /> Existing and pending are deducted at market equilibrium (95% <br />occupancy). <br />Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC <br /> <br />We estimate that seniors currently residing outside of Elk River will generate 25% of the <br />demand for congregate senior housing. This demand will consist <br />children living in Elk River, individuals who live just outside <br />the area, and former residents who desire to return upon retirement. Toget <br />from Elk River seniors and demand from seniors who are willing t87 <br />units of congregate senior housing in 2015. <br /> <br />Since there are no existing congregate units in Elk River, we do <br />potential by any competitive units. As a result, demand is calculated for 87 congregate units in <br />Elk River in 2015. <br /> <br />Adjusting for inflation, we estimate that households with income <br />senior homeowners with incomes between $25,000 and $35,000 would <br />housing in 2017. Following the same methodology, demand is calculated to increase to 102 <br />units through 2020. <br />91 <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC <br /> <br />