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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />TABLE HD-5 <br />SUBSIDIZED INDEPENDENT SENIOR HOUSING DEMAND <br />ELK RIVER <br />2015 & 2020 <br />20152020 <br />Age 65+ Households w/Incomes < $20,000223220 <br />(times) Percent of Income Qualified Seniors Needing/Desiring Subx30%30% <br />(equals) Demand Potenital from Market Area residents=6766 <br />(plus) Demand From Ouside the Market Area (40%)+4544 <br />(equals) Total Demand Potential for Subsidized Senior Housing in112110 <br />(minus) Existing & Pending Subsidized Senior Units in Market Are-118118 <br />(equals) Total Market Area Subsidized Senior Housing Demand Pote=00 <br />* Competitive subsidized units, minus a 7% vacancy rate. <br />Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC <br />We anticipate that at least 40% of the demand for subsidized sen <br />come from seniors currently residing in surrounding communities <br />River to be near their family or for other reasons. Including dom outside of Elk River <br />increases total demand potential to 112 units in 2015 and 110 units in 2020. <br /> <br />From this potential demand, we subtract the existing number of c <br />Elk River. Currently, there are only two identified subsidized senior buildings in the Market <br />Area with a total of 122 units and are both fully occupied with waiting lists. Subtracti <br />units, minus a 3% vacancy factor, results in sufficient subsidized units in Elk River in both 2015 <br />and 2020. The existing subsidized housing units are sufficiently serving t <br />through 2020. <br />Estimated Demand for Congregate Senior Housing <br />Table HD-6 presents our demand calculationsfor congregate housing in Elk River in 2015and <br />2020. <br />The potential age-and income-qualified base for congregate senior housing includes all senior <br />(65+) households with incomes of $35,000 as well as homeowner households with incomes <br />between $25,000 and $35,000 who would qualify with the proceeds from the sales of their <br />homes. The proportion of eligible homeowners is based on the ho <br />seniors, as identified in the demographics section of this studyncome, <br />and asset-qualified households in Elk River is estimated to be 1,282 households in 2015. <br /> <br />Adjusting to include appropriate capture rates for each age coho <br />to 74 and 11.0% of households age 75 and older) results in a loc <br />congregate units in 2015. <br /> <br />90 <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC <br /> <br />