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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />outside Elk River. This demand will consist primarily of parent <br />River, individuals who live just outside of Elk River and have a <br />as former residents who desire to return. Together, the demand from Elk River seniors and <br />demand from seniors who would relocate to Elk River results in a-term demand for <br />159 active adult units in 2015. <br />Independent demand in Elk River is split into housing that offerrental <br />housing. Based on the current product available in Elk River, w <br />demand will be for adult ownership housing (63 units) and 60% will be for rental housing (95 <br />units). <br /> <br />TABLE HD-3 <br />MARKET RATE ADULT/FEW SERVICES HOUSING DEMAND <br />ELK RIVER <br />2015 & 2020 <br />20152020 <br />Age of HouseholderAge of Householder <br />55-6465-7475+55-6465-7475+ <br /># of Households w/ Incomes of >$35,000 1 1,2137324301,412928789 <br /># of Households w/ Incomes of $24,999 to $34,999 1 7377887279113 <br />++ <br />(times ) Homeownership Rate87%84%63%87%84%63% <br />xx <br />(equals) Total Potential Market Base=1,277796485=1,475994860 <br />(times) Potential Capture Rate x0.5%5.0%15.0%x0.5%5.0%15.0% <br />(equals) Demand Potential =64073=750129 <br />Potential Demand from Market Area Residents=119=186 <br />(plus Demand from Outside Market Area (25%)2+40+62 <br />(equals) Total Demand Potential=159=248 <br />Renter-Renter- <br />Owner-Owner- <br />OccupiedOccupiedOccupiedOccupied <br />(times) % by Product Typex40%x60%x40%x60% <br />(equals) Demand Potential by Product Type=63=95=99=149 <br />(minus) Existing and Pending MR Active Adult Units 3-111-72-111-72 <br />(equals) Excess Demand for MR Active Adult Units=0=23=0=77 <br />1 <br /> 2020 calculations define income-qualified households as all hou <br />between $30,000 and $39,999. <br />2 <br /> Based on project manager interviews and historical trends. We <br />3 <br /> Existing and pending are deducted at market equilibrium (95% oc <br />Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Next, we subtract existing competitive market rate units (minus <br />for sufficient consumer choice and turnover) from the owner and <br />the existing competitive market rate units results in total demaotential for zero adult <br />owner-occupied units and 23 adult rental units in 2015. <br />87 <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC <br /> <br />