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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />Combining demand from household growth plus turnover results in <br />for 375 rental units over the next 10 years. Next, we estimate that 15% of the total demand for <br />new for-sale units in the Elk River will come from people currently living outside of Elk River for <br />a total of 442 rental units. <br /> <br />We then estimate the number of rental units each product type co <br />This capture rate is estimated based on the current products andduct pricing within in Elk <br />River along with household incomes for current renters. We fin44 <br />subsidized housing units, 133 affordable rental units, and 265 market rate units. <br /> <br />From the total demand for general occupancy units, we subtract any development under <br />construction or proposed at market equilibrium (95% occupancy) t <br />demand in Elk River. At the time of this study there was no one <br />and thus, excess demand remains for 44 subsidized units, 133 affordable units, and 265 market <br />rate units. <br /> <br /> <br />Estimated Demand for Independent Adult/Few Service Senior Housin <br />Table HD-3 presents our demand calculations for market rate independent s <br />River in 2015 and 2020. <br />In order to determine demand for independent senior housing, the <br />to those households that are both age and income qualified. The-qualified market is <br />defined as seniors age 55 and older, although independent livingwill primarily attract <br />seniors age 65 and older. <br />We calculate that the minimum income needed to afford monthly re <br />seniors with this income could afford a monthly rent of $1,165 based on spending 40% of their <br />income, which is much higher than the rents of $635 to $734 for two-bedroom units at Elk <br />Terrace and slightly higher than rent of $1,109 at Evans Park for two-bedroom apartments.It is <br />important to note that the existing developments are both over 2 <br />development would garner the higher rents. In addition, we add households with incomes <br />between $25,000 and $34,999 who would be able to supplement thei <br />proceeds from a home sale. We estimate the number of age/income-qualified senior <br />households in Elk River in 2015 to be 2,558 households. <br /> <br />Adjusting to include appropriate long-term capture rates for each age cohort (0.5% of <br />households age 55 to 64, about 5.0% of households age 65 to 74, <br />75 and over) results in a market rate demand potential for 119 independent senior rental u <br />in 2015. <br /> <br />Some additional demand will come from outside Elk River. We est25% of the long- <br />term demand for independent senior housing will be generated by iding <br />86 <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC <br /> <br />