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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />Adjusting for inflation, we have estimated that households with <br />and homeowners with incomes of $230,000 to $39,999 would income <br />independent senior housing in 2020. Considering the growth in tt base, the <br />income distribution of the older adult population in 2020, the methodology projected that <br />there will be no demand for adult owner-occupied units and increase to 77 adult rental units <br />in the City of Elk River by 2020. <br />Estimated Demand for Affordable Independent Senior Housing <br />Table HD-4 presents our demand calculations for affordable senior housing for households with <br />incomes qualifying at or below 50% and 80% of AMI in Elk River i <br />In order to arrive at the potential age and income-qualified base for low-income and affordable <br />housing, we include all senior (65+) households that qualify for the income guidelines for one- <br />and two-person households in 2015 at or below 50% and 80% of AMI ($30,350 and $52,650). <br /> <br />Adjusting to include appropriate long-term capture rates for each age cohort (1.5% of <br />households age 55 to 64, about 10.0% of households age 65 to 74, and 20.0% of households <br />age 75 and over) results in a market rate demand potential for 2 <br />units in 2015. <br /> <br />TABLE HD-4 <br />AFFORDABLE INDEPENDENT SENIOR HOUSING DEMAND <br />ELK RIVER <br />2015 & 2020 <br />20152020 <br />Age of HouseholderAge of Householder <br />55-6465-7475+55-6465-7475+ <br /># of Households w/ Incomes of $28,000 to $52,650233208262197213288 <br />(times ) Percent Renter Households13%16%37%13%16%37% <br />xx <br />(equals) Total Potential Market Base3033972634107 <br />= <br />(times) Potential Capture Rate x1.5%10.0%20.0%x1.5%10.0%20.0% <br />(equals) Demand Potential =0319=0321 <br />Total Market Rate Demand Potential=23=25 <br />(plus) Demand from Outside Market Area (40%)+15+17 <br />(equals) Total Demand Potential=39=42 <br />(minus) Existing and Pending Aff. Independent Units 1-0-0 <br />(equals) Total Demand Potential in Market Area=39=42 <br />1 <br /> Includes existing and pending units at 95% occupancy, or market <br />Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC <br />88 <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC <br /> <br />