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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />Estimated Demand for For-Sale Housing <br />Table HD-1 presents our demand calculations for general occupancy for-sale housing in Elk <br />Riverbetween 2015 and 2025. <br />The 65 and older cohort is typically not a target market for new-sale <br />housing, therefore, we limit demand from household growth to only those households under <br />the age of 65. According to our projections, the Elk River is expected to increase by estimated <br />704 households under the age of 65 between 2015 and 2025. Of this projected household <br />growth, we estimate that 82% have a propensity to own, thus projected demand from <br />household growth total 577 households. <br /> <br /> <br />TABLE HD-1 <br />FOR-SALE HOUSING DEMAND <br />ELK RIVER <br />2015 to 2025 <br />Demand from Projected Household Growth <br />704 <br />Projected HH growth under age 65 in the Market Area 2015 to 2025¹ <br />2 <br />(times) % propensity to own <br />x82.0% <br />577 <br />(equals) Projected demand from new HH growth= <br />Demand from Existing Owner Households <br />3 <br />Number of owner households (age 64 and younger) in Market Area ( <br />5,745 <br />(times) Estimated percent of owner turnover 4 <br />x55% <br />3,160 <br />(equals) Total existing households projected to turnover= <br />8.3% <br />(times) Estimated percent desiring new housingx <br />261 <br /> <br />838 <br />(equals) Total demand from HH growth and existing HHs 2015 to 20= <br />15% <br />(times) Demand from outside Elk River Market Area <br />986 <br />(equals) Total demand potential for ownership housing, 2015 to 2 <br />Single Multi- <br />Familyfamily* <br />5 <br />(times) Percent desiring for-sale single-family vs. multifamily <br />x80%20% <br />(equals) Total demand potential for new single-family & multifa=789197 <br />6 <br />(minus) Units marketing or approved platted lots (undeveloped an <br />-18811 <br />(equals) Excess demand for new general occupancy for-sale housin=601186 <br />1 <br /> Estimated household growth based on data from Table D-1 as adju <br />2 <br /> Pct. of owner households under the age of 65 (U.S. Census - 201 <br />3 Estimate based on 2010 owner households and new owner household <br />4 Based on on turnover from 2010 American Community Survey for ho <br />5 Based on preference for housing type and land availability <br />6 <br />Approved platted lot data does not account for the scattered lot <br />* Multi-family demand includes demand for townhomes, twinhomes, an <br /> <br />Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC <br /> <br /> <br />83 <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC <br /> <br />