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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />Demand is also forecast to emerge from existing Market Area hous <br />An estimated 5,745 owner-occupied households under age 65 are located in the Elk River in <br />2015. Based on mobility data from the Census Bureau, an estimated 55% of owner households <br />will turnover in a ten-year period, resulting in 3,160 existing households projected to turnover. <br />Finally, we estimate 8.3% of the existing owner households will seek new for-sale housing, <br />resulting in demand for nearly 261 for-sale units through 2025. Combining the demand from <br />new household growth and from household turnover equals a total demand for 838 for-sale <br />housing units from 2015 to 2025 <br />Next, we estimate that 15% of the total demand for new for-sale units in the Elk River will come <br />from people currently living outside of the Market Area. A small portion of this market will be <br />former residents of the area, such as snow-birds heading south for the winters. Adding <br />demand from outside the Elk River to the existing demand potential, results in a total estimated <br />demand for 986 for-sale housing units by 2025. <br /> <br />Based on land available, building trends, and demographic shifts <br />population), we project 80% of the for-sale owners will prefer traditional single-family product <br />types while the remaining 20% will prefer a maintenance-free multi-family product (i.e. twin <br />homes, townhomes, or condominiums). <br /> <br />We then subtract the current identified platted lots that are un <br />After subtracting the current lot supply in subdivisions (188 total single-family lots) we find <br />total demand through 2025 resulting in 601 single-family lots and 186 multifamily lots. <br /> <br /> <br />Estimated Demand for General-Occupancy Rental Housing <br />Table HD-2 presents our calculation of general occupancy rental housing d <br />This analysis identifies potential demand for rental housing tha <br />households and turnover households. <br />The 65 and older cohort is typically not a target market for new <br />housing, therefore, we limit demand from household growth to onl <br />the age of 65. According to our projections, the Elk Riveris expected to increase by 704 <br />households under the age of 65 between 2015 and 2025. <br />Demand is also forecast to emerge from existing Market Area housrough turnover. <br />An estimated 1,450renter-occupied households under age 65 are located in the Elk Riverin <br />2015. Based on mobilitydata from the Census Bureau, we estimate renter household by age <br />group forturnover in a ten-year period, resulting inexisting households projected to turnover. <br />Finally, we estimate the percentage of the existing renter households that willdesirenew rental <br />housing, resulting in demand for 244rental units through 2025. <br />84 <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC <br /> <br />