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• TH 10 / 169 and 173rd Avenue <br />• TH 10 / 169 and 171St Avenue <br />• TH 10 / 169 and 165th Avenue <br />• Twin Lakes Road and Tyler Street <br />• Twin Lakes Road and 175th Avenue <br />• Twin Lakes Road and 172nd Avenue <br />• Twin Lakes Road and 171St Avenue <br />• 171St Avenue and Ulysses Street <br />Traffic Forecasts <br />In order to estimate the traffic impacts the proposed development scenarios have <br />on the study area roadways, it is necessary to estimate the expected background <br />traffic growth, as well as the amount of traffic expected to be generated by the <br />proposed development. The traffic forecasting process consists of the following key <br />components: <br />• Existing traffic conditions <br />• Background traffic growth <br />• Site /development generated traffic <br />• Trip distribution <br />• Future roadway network <br />• Trip assignment /forecasted traffic volumes <br />Existing Traffic Conditions <br />In order to provide a base condition for the traffic analysis, turning movement <br />counts were collected at the eight key intersections during the peak AM and PM <br />periods in May of 2011. Figure 21-1 displays the existing AM and PM peak hour <br />turning movements along with the existing intersection lane geometry. For <br />reference, the raw count data at the key intersections is attached. <br />Background Traffic Growth <br />Traffic growth in the vicinity of a proposed development will occur between existing <br />conditions and any given future year due to other growth and development within <br />the region. This background growth must be accounted for and included in future <br />year traffic forecasts. Reviewing the historical traffic counts on TH 10 / 169 we <br />determined that: in 2000 the ADT was 31,000 vpd; the current count completed in <br />2011 is 31,500 vpd; and, the highest volume reported between 2000 and 2011 was <br />36,000 vpd in 2004, 2006 and 2007. Over the ten year time frame this represents <br />just over a 16% or about 1.5% per year increase in traffic from the low volume to <br />the high volume. <br />The 20-year State Aid traffic growth factor for Sherburne County is 1.8 or <br />approximately 2.9% per year growth. In order to be conservative and insure that all <br />potential adjacent development is accounted for the 20 year 1.8 (2.9% /yr) growth <br />was used for none site background traffic in the operations analyses. <br />Ciry of Elk River <br />Draft Alternative Urban Areawide Review <br />July 2011 <br />Page 56 of 84 <br /> <br />