4.4. SR 03-17-2003 - Laserfiche WebLink

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Adding weekend service has the effect of raising the benefits of the Northstar relative to the shorter line. Time saved by rail commuters Parsons-Brinckerhoff assumed that commuters who took the train would get to work more slowly than if they drove their cars, both at the beginning of operation of the Elk River line and after 15 years in 2020. Accordingly, their calculations actually had negative benefits to commuters who switched from cars. The correct comparison for these commuters is to compare the total cost of train riding time, plus waiting and walking time with the time to drive. Even so, this assumption seems very pessimistic given the current and projected future congestion in the corridor. The train is projected to travel at 47 miles per hour on average (including stops) while traffic in the corridor is projected to slow to between 20 and 40 miles per hour in 2025. In contrast, MnDOT assumed that total trip time for auto-to-rail switcher on the Northstar line would be 2 minutes slower in the first year and the situation would improve until the average rider saved two minutes for the whole trip. This is also probably very conservative in light of the results of recent traffic projections on Highway 10. Using MnDOT's assumption raises the benefits from those PB estimated for the Elk River line. Different auto operating cost and average trip lengths MnDOT used a slightly higher average trip length for the 82.2-mile Northstar corridor than PB used for the shorter Elk River line (22.1 miles vs. 18.5 miles). MnDOT also used an updated average operating cost per mile for autos as recommended by the MnDOT Office of Investment Management. The MnDOT figure was about 10 per cent higher, adding to benefits. Different accident frequencies and average costs MnDOT used actual accident frequency rates from Minnesota while PB used figures from a standardized model. The rate of accidents per mile was a little higher in the MnDOT study leading to an increase in the benefits associated with fewer accidents. MnDOT also used figures for average cost of property-damage accidents and fatal accidents that were recommended by the MNDOT Office of Investment Management. It is not clear where the PB numbers came from, but they wer lower than the MnDOT figures. Value of the capital stock MnDOT's analysis assigned a value to the physical capital of the Northstar line after 15 years. This is appropriate since useful life of the stations, roadbed and rolling stock is longer than 15 years. In it study of the Elk River line, PB did not include this quantity. Adding this quantity increased the net present value of the Northstar line as compared to the Elk River line. 10