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<br /> <br />Investment Trends – Ehlers Investment Partners <br /> <br /> <br />In September, the Fed raised the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to a <br />range between 2.00% and 2.25%. This represents the 6th rate increase since December of 2016. <br /> <br />In a speech to business leaders in Baton Rouge, LA on October 23, Atlanta Federal Reserve <br />Bank President Raphael Bostic suggested the U.S. central bank should take its "policy foot off <br />the gas." He also indicated the Fed doesn't yet need to think about pumping the brake and <br />supports continued gradual interest rate hikes until the Fed gets to a neutral policy rate. (The <br />central bank has estimated that the "long-run" neutral level of the fed funds rate is 3% but has not <br />clearly said if this estimate is valid in the short run.) "While there is some uncertainty <br />surrounding estimates of neutral...my assessment is that we are still a few rate hikes away," he <br />said. When the Fed gets to neutral, Bostic said he would "look to see if consumers and <br />businesses continue to act in ways that did not suggest a buildup of excesses." <br /> <br />Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said October 24 that President Donald <br />Trump's very vocal criticism of the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates doesn't affect the central <br />bank's policy decisions. In a speech in New York, Mester also said the recent drop in stocks had <br />not impacted her upbeat outlook for the economy. She further expounded that prolonged market <br />weakness may damage the economy and change her thinking and indicated she saw no sign of an <br />impending recession. <br /> <br />If the Fed continues this path of rate increases to the point where the fed funds rate reaches the <br />perceived “neutral level” of 3%, public sector investors could see returns for local government <br />investment pools (LGIPs) reach levels not experienced in over a decade. At a sustained 3%, <br />earnings in LGIPs would be $30,000 annually per $1 million invested, a tremendous increase <br />compared to less than $2,000 earned annually just 3 years ago. But just as short-term rates have <br />Product 1 Year Ago 1 Month Ago Today <br />1 Year Certificate of Deposit 1.50%2.50%2.60% <br />3 Year Certificate of Deposit 2.00%3.05%3.15% <br />5 Year US Agency Note 2.10%3.15%3.30% <br />Money Market Funds 1.00%-1.05%1.95%-2.05%2.05%-2.15% <br />Trends in Investment Returns <br />October 30, 2018