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Chapter 10 Page 9 of 25 decade, since many of the closures are likely to be businesses that were start-ups during the 90's." . "The major group of companies with the greatest closure rate is apparel stores. The 90's is experiencing a 5.4% per year closure rate in this group that compares to an 8.0% rate for the 80's. Extrapolating the 5.4% rate to the year 2000 would yield a 54.0% closure rate for the decade. Again, this is not 54% of those starting the decade."l2. Not only are the small and medium sized retailers being hammered by the major retail discount chains but the medium sized discount chains are falling by the wayside as attested to the bankruptcy applications of Caldor and Bradlees, and now even the giant Kmart appears to be suffering. Charming Shoppes with over 1400 retail stores is reported to be in real trouble, while Silo's has closed all stores. In retailing, analysts say, discount is no longer synonymous with success. "The days are gone when a discounter could be unique or alone in any market," says Allan L. Pennington, a Chicago retail consultant with McMillanlDoolittle. "It's become a difficult business to be in." Analysts trace the trend to a redrawing of battle lines. Until recently, discounters of every stripe sought to steal customers from full-price independent, mass merchants such as J.C. Penney Co. and department stores such as R.H. Macy & Co. But the expansion into ne::rrly every market ofthe so-called Big Three -- Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., Kmart Corp. and Dayton Hudson Corp's Target chain -- has pitted discounter against discounter in a ,:ompetition that favors size. Wal-Mart and Target, in, particular are thriving. "The smaller chains are . getting caught in a battle between the Big.;;." says Linda Kristiansen, a New York retail analyst with Wertheim Schroder.16 The Role of the National Trust for Historic Preservation The author has endeavored to assess the contributions ofthe mega-retail discount chains as well as the negative implications of teir unprecedented growth. It's important at this time as the writer comes to the end of his study to once again review the role of the National TlUst for Historic Preservation and the challenge it sets forth to governments, citizens, planners, developers and local and national economists and sociologists. The Trust sees the mega-retail discount chains as inputting such negatives as: 1. Sapping the economic vitality of downtowns and "Main Street" by shifting the retail center of gravity out to highway interchanges on the edge of town. 2. Displacing existing businesses, especially independently owned small businesses that contribute significantly to local civic life, by building stores vastly out of scale with town's ability to absorb them. 3. Setting the stage for higher property and state income taxes by creating developments that . are costly to serve and require new roads, water and sewer lines, police protection and other public services. http://www.shilsreport.orglchapl0.html 10/6/99