9.1 HRSR 05-01-2017 - Laserfiche WebLink

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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS Demand is also forecast to emerge from existing Market Area householders through turnover. An estimated 5,745 owner - occupied households under age 65 are located in the Elk River in 2015. Based on mobility data from the Census Bureau, an estimated 55% of owner households will turnover in a ten -year period, resulting in 3,160 existing households projected to turnover. Finally, we estimate 8.3% of the existing owner households will seek new for -sale housing, resulting in demand for nearly 261 for -sale units through 2025. Combining the demand from new household growth and from household turnover equals a total demand for 838 for -sale housing units from 2015 to 2025 Next, we estimate that 15% of the total demand for new for -sale units in the Elk River will come from people currently living outside of the Market Area. A small portion of this market will be former residents of the area, such as "snow- birds" heading south for the winters. Adding demand from outside the Elk River to the existing demand potential, results in a total estimated demand for 986 for -sale housing units by 2025. Based on land available, building trends, and demographic shifts (increasing older adult population), we project 80% of the for -sale owners will prefer traditional single - family product types while the remaining 20% will prefer a maintenance -free multi - family product (i.e. twin homes, townhomes, or condominiums). We then subtract the current identified platted lots that are under construction or approved. After subtracting the current lot supply in subdivisions (188 total single - family lots) we find total demand through 2025 resulting in 601 single - family lots and 186 multifamily lots. Estimated Demand for General- Occupancy Rental Housing Table HD -2 presents our calculation of general occupancy rental housing demand for Elk River. This analysis identifies potential demand for rental housing that is generated from both new households and turnover households. The 65 and older cohort is typically not a target market for new general occupancy rental housing, therefore, we limit demand from household growth to only those households under the age of 65. According to our projections, the Elk River is expected to increase by 704 households under the age of 65 between 2015 and 2025. Demand is also forecast to emerge from existing Market Area householders through turnover. An estimated 1,450 renter - occupied households under age 65 are located in the Elk River in 2015. Based on mobility data from the Census Bureau, we estimate renter household by age group for turnover in a ten -year period, resulting in existing households projected to turnover. Finally, we estimate the percentage of the existing renter households that will desire new rental housing, resulting in demand for 244 rental units through 2025. MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 84