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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />Estimated Demand for For -Sale Housing <br />Table HD -1 presents our demand calculations for general occupancy for -sale housing in Elk <br />River between 2015 and 2025. <br />The 65 and older cohort is typically not a target market for new general occupancy for -sale <br />housing, therefore, we limit demand from household growth to only those households under <br />the age of 65. According to our projections, the Elk River is expected to increase by estimated <br />704 households under the age of 65 between 2015 and 2025. Of this projected household <br />growth, we estimate that 82% have a propensity to own, thus projected demand from <br />household growth total 577 households. <br />TABLE HD -1 <br />FOR -SALE HOUSING DEMAND <br />ELK RIVER <br />2015 to 2025 <br />Demand from Projected Household Growth <br />Projected HH growth under age 65 in the Market Area 2015 to 2025' <br />704 <br />(times) % propensity to own <br />x 82.0% <br />(equals) Projected demand from new HH growth <br />= 577 <br />Demand from Existing Owner Households <br />Number of owner households (age 64 and younger) in Market Area (2015 )3 <br />5,745 <br />(times) Estimated percent of owner turnover <br />x 55% <br />(equals) Total existing households projected to turnover <br />= 3,160 <br />(times) Estimated percent desiring new housing <br />x 8.3% <br />261 <br />(equals) Total demand from HH growth and existing HHs 2015 to 2025 <br />= 838 <br />(times) Demand from outside Elk River Market Area <br />15% <br />(equals) Total demand potential for ownership housing, 2015 to 2025 <br />986 <br />(times) Percent desiring for -sale single - family vs. multifamily5 <br />x 80% 20% <br />(equals) Total demand potential for new single - family & multifamily for -sale housing <br />= 789 197 <br />(minus) Units marketing or approved platted lots (undeveloped and developed lots)6 <br />188 11 <br />(equals) Excess demand for new general occupancy for -sale housing <br />= 601 186 <br />' Estimated household growth based on data from Table D -1 as adjusted by Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC <br />Z Pct. of owner households under the age of 65 (U.S. Census - 2010, ESRI, Maxfield Research Inc.). Adjusted by Maxfield Research to account for shift in <br />3 Estimate based on 2010 owner households and new owner household growth 2010 to 2015 (under age 65) <br />4 Based on on turnover from 2010 American Community Survey for households moving over 10 -year period. <br />5 Based on preference for housing type and land availability <br />6Approved platted lot data does not account for the scattered lot supply which includes individual lots and lots in older non - marketing subdivisions. <br />Multi- family demand includes demand for townhomes, twinhomes, and condominium units. <br />Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 83 <br />