2. HRSR 02-01-2016 - Laserfiche WebLink

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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS We then estimate that seniors currently residing outside of Elk River would generate 40%of the demand for affordable senior housing. This demand includes seniors who reside outside of Elk River that would move to the city, as well as those who would relocate from other places of residence (i.e. rural areas, other areas of the state and out-of-state). Together, demand from Elk River seniors and demand from seniors who would locate to Elk River total an estimated 39 affordable units in 2015. There are no affordable senior rental properties in Elk River and thus, the total potential demand remains at 39 units in 2015. Following the same methodology, we project that excess demand capturable in Elk River is calculated to increase slightly to 42 affordable independent senior housing units by 2020. Estimated Demand for Subsidized Senior Housing Table HD-6 presents our demand calculations for subsidized senior housing in Elk River in 2015 and 2020. The 2015 income qualifications for extremely-low income housing in Sherburne County are $18,200 for a one-person household and $20,800 for a two-person household. Seniors with incomes meeting these guidelines are designated as having low incomes and are in need of subsidized housing; households with incomes above these guidelines but below those necessary to obtain market rate housing would be candidates for affordable housing. Seniors living at a Section 202 building pay their rent according to their monthly income (30%of monthly income). Households with incomes slightly above 50% of MFI are primarily a target for affordable housing, with rents usually set at 50%to 80%of MFI, and would not qualify for deeply-subsidized housing. It should be noted that many senior households in low and very low income categories own their homes and therefore have untapped equity which, upon the sales of their homes, can be used toward market rate housing. Maxfield Research & Consulting LLC calculated demand for subsidized senior housing as displayed in Table HD-5. We assume that all households over the age of 65 with incomes of $20,800 or less in Elk River are income-qualified and would be candidates for subsidized senior housing. In 2015, we find a total of an estimated 223 households over the age of 65 in Elk River meeting these age-and income-qualifications. We estimate that approximately 30%of the total age/income-qualified market would both need and desire subsidized senior housing. The remaining households would either remain in their homes until in need of housing with services or obtain affordable/market rate housing with assistance from family members or through the sale of a home or other assets. Applying a 30%capture rate, results in an estimated potential demand for 67 subsidized senior housing units in Elk River in 2015 and 66 units in 2020. MAXFIELD RESEARCH&CONSULTING,LLC 89