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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br /> Adjusting for inflation, we have estimated that households with incomes of$40,000 or more <br /> and homeowners with incomes of$230,000 to $39,999 would income qualify for market rate <br /> independent senior housing in 2020. Considering the growth in the older adult base, the <br /> income distribution of the older adult population in 2020, the methodology projected that <br /> there will be no demand for adult owner-occupied units and increase to 77 adult rental units <br /> in the City of Elk River by 2020. <br /> Estimated Demand for Affordable Independent Senior Housing <br /> Table HD-4 presents our demand calculations for affordable senior housing for households with <br /> incomes qualifying at or below 50%and 80%of AMI in Elk River in 2015 and 2020. <br /> In order to arrive at the potential age and income-qualified base for low-income and affordable <br /> housing, we include all senior (65+) households that qualify for the income guidelines for one- <br /> and two-person households in 2015 at or below 50%and 80%of AMI ($30,350 and $52,650). <br /> Adjusting to include appropriate long-term capture rates for each age cohort (1.5%of <br /> households age 55 to 64, about 10.0%of households age 65 to 74, and 20.0%of households <br /> age 75 and over) results in a market rate demand potential for 23 independent senior rental <br /> units in 2015. <br /> TABLE HD-4 <br /> AFFORDABLE INDEPENDENT SENIOR HOUSING DEMAND <br /> ELK RIVER <br /> 2015&2020 <br /> 2015 2020 <br /> Age of Householder Age of Householder <br /> 55-64 65-74 75+ 55-64 65-74 75+ <br /> #of Households w/Incomes of$28,000 to$52,650 233 208 262 197 213 288 <br /> (times) Percent Renter Households x 13% 16% 37% x 13% 16% 37% <br /> (equals)Total Potential Market Base = 30 33 97 26 34 107 <br /> (times)Potential Capture Rate x 1.5% 10.0% 20.0% x 1.5% 10.0% 20.0% <br /> (equals)Demand Potential = 0 3 19 = 0 3 21 <br /> Total Market Rate Demand Potential = 23 4 = 25 4 <br /> (plus)Demand from Outside Market Area(40%) + 15 + 17 <br /> (equals)Total Demand Potential = 39 = 42 <br /> (minus)Existing and Pending Aff. Independent Units' - 0 - 0 <br /> (equals)Total Demand Potential in Market Area = 39 = 42 <br /> 1 Includes existing and pending units at 95%occupancy,or market equilibrium. No additional units are planned through 2020. <br /> Source: Maxfield Research&Consulting,LLC <br /> MAXFIELD RESEARCH&CONSULTING,LLC 88 <br />