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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS Estimated Demand for For-Sale Housing Table HD-1 presents our demand calculations for general occupancy for-sale housing in Elk River between 2015 and 2025. The 65 and older cohort is typically not a target market for new general occupancy for-sale housing, therefore, we limit demand from household growth to only those households under the age of 65. According to our projections, the Elk River is expected to increase by estimated 704 households under the age of 65 between 2015 and 2025. Of this projected household growth, we estimate that 82% have a propensity to own, thus projected demand from household growth total 577 households. TABLE HD-1 FOR-SALE HOUSING DEMAND ELK RIVER 2015 to 2025 'Demand from Projected Household Growth Projected HH growth under age 65 in the Market Area 2015 to 20251 704 (times)%propensity to own' x 82.0% (equals)Projected demand from new HH growth = 577 'Demand from Existing Owner Households Number of owner households(age 64 and younger)in Market Area(2015)3 5,745 (times)Estimated percent of owner turnover4 x 55% (equals)Total existing households projected to turnover = 3,160 (times)Estimated percent desiring new housing x 8.3% 261 (equals)Total demand from HH growth and existing HHs 2015 to 2025 838 (times)Demand from outside Elk River Market Area 15% (equals)Total demand potential for ownership housing,2015 to 2025 986 Single Multi- Family family* (times)Percent desiring for-sale single-family vs.multifamily' x 80% 20% (equals) Total demand potential for new single-family&multifamily for-sale housing = 789 197 (minus)Units marketing or approved platted lots(undeveloped and developed lots)' - 188 11 (equals)Excess demand for new general occupancy for-sale housing = 601 186 Estimated household growth based on data from Table D-1 as adjusted by Maxfield Research&Consulting,LLC 2 Pct.of owner households under the age of 65(U.S.Census-2010,ESRI,Maxfield Research Inc.). Adjusted by Maxfield Research to account for shift in 'Estimate based on 2010 owner households and new owner household growth 2010 to 2015(under age 65) 4 Based on on turnover from 2010 American Community Survey for households moving over 10-year period. 6 Based on preference for housing type and land availability 6Approved platted lot data does not account for the scattered lot supply which includes individual lots and lots in older non-marketing subdivisions. Multi-family demand includes demand for townhomes,twinhomes,and condominium units. Source: Maxfield Research&Consulting,LLC MAXFIELD RESEARCH &CONSULTING, LLC 83