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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />months according to the 2009 Overview of Assisted Living). For each age group in Table HD-7, <br />we estimate the income-qualified percentage to be all seniors in households with income <br />above $40,000 (who could afford monthly rents of $3,000+ per mon <br />estimated seniors in homeowner households with incomes below $40,000 (who will spend <br />down assets, including home-equity, in order to live in assisted living housing). This resu <br />total potential market of 211 units from the PMA in 2010. <br /> <br />TABLE HD-7 <br />MARKET RATE ASSISTED LIVING DEMAND <br />ELK RIVER <br />2015 & 2020 <br />20152020 <br />NumberNumber <br />PercentPercent <br />NeedingNeeding <br />NeedingNeeding <br />11 <br />AssistanceAssistance <br />Age groupPeopleAssistance¹PeopleAssistance¹ <br />100133 <br />75 - 7939425.5%52025.5% <br />103114 <br />80 - 8430733.6%33833.6% <br />167187 <br />85+32351.6%36351.6% <br />370433 <br />Total1,0241,221 <br />2 <br />57%56% <br />Percent Income-Qualified <br />211243 <br />Total potential market <br />51%51% <br />(times) Percent living alonex <br />108124 <br />(equals) Age/income-qualified singles needing assistance= <br />1517 <br />(plus) Proportion of demand from couples (12%)³+ <br />122141 <br />(equals) Total age/income-qualified market needing assistance= <br />4 <br />40%40% <br />(times) Potential penetration ratex <br />4956 <br />(equals) Potential demand from PMA residents= <br />3338 <br />(plus) Proportion from outside the PMA (40%)+ <br />8294 <br />(equals) Total potential assisted living demand= <br />5 <br />4747 <br />(minus) Existing market rate assisted living units- <br />3547 <br />(equals) Total excess market rate assisted living demand= <br />1 <br /> The percentage of seniors unable to perform or having difficult <br />Participation (SIPP) files, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. <br />2 <br /> Includes households with incomes of $40,000 or more (who could <br />estimated owner households with incomes below $40,000 (who will <br />assisted living housing). <br />3 <br /> The 2009 Overview of Assisted Living (a collaborative project o <br />residents are couples. <br />4 <br /> We estimate that 60% of the qualified market needing assistance <br />advanced senior housing with the assistance of a family member o <br />skilled care facility. <br />5 <br /> Existing and pending units at 93% occupancy. We exclde 15% of u <br />Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC <br />Because the vast majority of assisted living residents are singl <br />Overview of Assisted Living), our demand methodology multiplies <br />the percentage of seniors age 75+ in the PMA living alone. Base2010 Census data, 51% of <br />age 75+ households in the PMA lived alone. Applying this percenge results in a total base of <br />211 age/income-qualified singles. The 2009 Overview of Assisted Living found t <br />93 <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC <br /> <br />