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Eli <br /> ks. .= F1k River cmvelMmmgnmrim <br /> River <br /> Background Traffic Growth <br /> Traffic volumes for the year 2030 were forecasted as a part of Sherburne County's Transportation Plan. <br /> This plan was completed in 2007—at a time when growth was just starting to slow and the economy <br /> was starting to decrease. However,the data used to complete the County's plan (including 2030 traffic <br /> forecasts)were developed when the economy was robust and growth in traffic had been occurring. This <br /> is reflected in the MnDOT Traffic Flow Maps for the time period between 2000 and 2013. The end result <br /> is that traffic volumes in 2013/2014 are very similar to the traffic volumes in 2007. Because economic <br /> growth was limited between 2007 and 2014, it is expected that the traffic growth originally projected for <br /> 2030 is likely to occur at a later time. The 2030 forecast traffic volumes produced in 2007 more likely <br /> represent 2040 year forecasts. <br /> The traffic forecasts on US 169 produced for the County Transportation Plan included some growth in <br /> the proposed mining area development. Because this is the case, the trip generation caused by the <br /> proposed land uses for US 169 in this study is assumed to be somewhat accounted for in the County's <br /> Transportation Plan as background traffic growth. <br /> Trip Generation <br /> Information from the proposed land uses in the study area is used to determine the amount of new trips <br /> generated by the proposed development versus what existing land uses currently generate.Trip <br /> generation is estimated by applying trip generation equations found in the Institute of Transportation <br /> Engineers'Trip Generation Manual to the amount of commercial, industrial, residential, and other <br /> useable space within the development area. <br /> Trip generation rates in the Trip Generation Manual are given for stand-alone developments and do not <br /> differentiate between the source of the trips (new trips versus existing trips that are diverted due to the <br /> proposed development) and thus need to be adjusted to account for these factors.Three main trip <br /> generation adjustments are generally used to account for these factors: internal trip reduction, trips <br /> between analysis zones, and pass-by/diverted link trip adjustments. <br /> Internal trip reduction captures the amount of trips that originate at one component of an analysis zone <br /> but terminate at another component in the same zone. Some examples of internal trip might be a trip <br /> from one retail store to another retail store in a shopping center or a lunch trip from an office to a <br /> restaurant located within the same group of buildings. Internal trips are most frequent in <br /> retail/commercial and mixed-use areas.According to guidance from the Trip Generation Manual, an <br /> internal trip reduction factor of 20 percent was applied to each zone with commercial uses present. <br /> Trips between analysis zones are caused by trips traveling from one analysis zone to another without <br /> leaving the study area using roadways within the study area. For example, a trip between zones might <br /> include a person traveling from an office located in Zone 4 to a restaurant located in Zone 1 for lunch. <br /> NCHRP Report 684 includes data on the amount of trips that are attracted between land uses of various <br /> types within a study area (e.g., residential-to-retail trips or office-to-restaurant trips), and this data was <br /> used to estimate the amount of trips that would travel between analysis zones in the study area. After <br /> 58 <br />