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Scenarios Technology Breakthrough and the Power of the People- <br /> One or a number of breakthroughs in innovation and <br /> Exactly how all these forces will play out technology lead to attractive cheap new energy sources <br /> is still evolving and there are significant and services and customers rapidly move to adopt them. <br /> uncertainties. To envision the future, it's Promising areas include energy storage, rooftop solar, <br /> helpful to consider a number of microgeneration, automated home management systems, <br /> plausible scenarios. and fuel cells. These breakthroughs lead to a new cycle <br /> of deregulation and open market access in markets <br /> Flat Economy and Customer Conservation- not already deregulated as well as more robust and <br /> Slow economic growth combined with continued energy competitive markets that are already deregulated. In <br /> conservation advances results in a flat or even declining this scenario, the most successful companies are those <br /> energy growth outlook. In this scenario, the most success- that invest in and are positioned well to market the new <br /> ful companies are those that adopt aggressive efficiency, technologies being adopted by the marketplace. <br /> capital project rationalization, and asset management Indirectly, the most successful utilities are those <br /> initiatives designed to streamline operations, conserve who work closely with their regulators to establish <br /> capital, and enhance asset productivity. In addition, the regulatory constructs that support investments in <br /> most successful companies work to establish stronger enabling infrastructure and market access. Companies <br /> relationships with local regulators and the communities who are most challenged are those who are slow to <br /> they serve to support aggressive programs for economic invest in the new technologies or incumbent utilities <br /> development in the region. Diversification, merger and that do not move to quickly invest in infrastructure needed <br /> acquisitions strategies are also options to gain additional to enable the new markets. Incumbent utilities may face <br /> critical mass, synergy savings and diversification into potentially stranded investment in old systems and <br /> higher growth regions. <br /> U.S.Solar PV Installation Frequency and Volume <br /> 90.0 10,000 <br /> 80.0 9,000 <br /> 0 70.0 8,000 <br /> f° 7,000 2 <br /> m 60.0 <br /> N H <br /> = 6,000 0 <br /> 50.0 co <br /> 5,000 <br /> co <br /> ai 40.0 C <br /> = <br /> 4,000 <br /> 30.0 <br /> 3,000 <br /> 20.0 <br /> 2,000 <br /> 10.0 <br /> 1,000 <br /> — mow. gun MI ® ■2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E <br /> As third party distributed solar PV vendors(e.g.,Solar City)have gained experience,they have been instating more reesE►eCH <br /> and more distributed solar PV systems faster and faster. <br /> KPMG The Agile Utility-Forces at Work Changing the Industry in North America 5 <br /> 103 <br />