4.3. SR 01-20-2004 - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Browse Search

We will continue working with the FTA on these issues. Based on the FTA's final analysis, the full NCDA board will need to determine the configuration of the Northstar service we intend to use for our proposal to the 2004 Legislature. Ridership Projections If the FTA requires Northstar to end at Big Lake and to remove the Foley and Northeast Minneapolis stations, the cost-effectiveness index indicates that projected ridership is approximately 5,600 riders per day. However, using the previous model to develop an "apples-to-apples" comparison with our past projections, the ridership on the full Rice/St. Cloud to Minneapolis line would exceed the previous estimates of approximately 10,000 riders in 2020. You may wonder why these projections are so fundamentally different. The FTA model is designed to use conservative estimates of rail ridership, in order to best standardize their analysis for projects for different parts of the country. For example, even though riders prefer rail service to bus systems under similar conditions, the cost-effectiveness index limits the use of rail preferences. This data reinforces the NCDA's long-held belief that Northstar commuter rail is the best choice for increasing transportation capacity and getting commuters moving in this corridor. Next Steps This information reflects the preliminary results of the analysis of the Northstar project. We need to obtain a final evaluation of the entire project from the FTA. We also need to obtain feedback from Governor Pawlenty and key legislators. We all believe that the entire Rice to Minneapolis route is a smart transportation investment. It is also a reality that Northstar cannot move ahead without FTA approval and funding participation. Further, Governor Pawlenty has made it clear to us, on multiple occasions, that he will support transportation projects that are cost-effective and demonstrate the ability to move people where they need to go. He has indicated he will use FTA's evaluation in helping him to decide to support Northstar. While the new analysis suggests that we may need to modify our proposal in order to obtain state and federal funding, it is important to remember that this is the first step of our work. If we need to segment the Northstar line, it will not affect my resolve to develop and implement a full solution to add transportation capacity in our corridor. However, any change in the Northstar proposal will be a decision the entire board will have to make once we have the necessary information from the FTA. We will discuss this information in further detail and consider the best way to move forward with the Northstar project. In the meantime, please contact Tim Yantos or Jeff Dehler with any questions you have or if you need additional information. I appreciate all of your work on behalf of the Northstar commuter rail project.