INFORMATION #1 07-20-2009 - Laserfiche WebLink

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INFORMATION The City makes sure we are sufficiently liquid by continually updating our forecast on the anticipated cash flow needs over the next five year time horizon. We also build in a reserve balance incase of unexpected expenditures, these funds are maintained in money market accounts through the 4M Fund. We anticipate the fact that we will have two large tax settlements each year, along with the regularly scheduled debt service payments that occur each year. Over the past couple of months the search for quality has been the goal, thus we have avoided commercial paper for the last six months due to concerns over the credit quality issues that have existed. The markets have seen increased volatility in the bond markets and the yield curve has started to show signs of an upward- sloping shape which has meant long- term securities slighdy exceed returns on short-term instruments. This may also indicate that investors still prefer liquidity and will take a lower yield for short-term and secure investments. The City has to weight the opportunity cost to invest in longer term investments or ride the yield curve and reinvest at shorter maturity intervals. Most recent purchases have been Certificates of deposits which have a maturity of three to five years with reasonable interest rates. In addition, some callable bonds that could be called anywhere from three months to two years have been purchased, but if inflation starts and bond rates rise we may have to hold until maturity. We carefully consider these issues in our cash flow analysis model. Investing in shorter-term investments has presented far fewer options since the decline in commercial paper market. Treasury yields are still around historical lows and only a few basis points away from year-end yields. Three month notes are yielding 0.19% and the ten year notes is 3.53%. See graphical illustration below: http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic- finance /debt-management/interest-rate /yield historical. shtml TreasuryYield Curve 5.00% __ _ _ _ -- ---7 -~ 4.50 % _ _ - _ __ -----._ ~:_ _ - -------------- --- 4.00°/ _.~ -- - - - 3.50 % __ - - -- --- _ _ _ 3.00 % _ ._._._- -- ----- - 2.50% - --- - '~ t 03/31 /2009 - ___ -- - _ , __ __ -- T 06/30/2009 2.00 % --- - - 1 .50 % -- -- --~ -~ ---------- - 1 .00% --- __ _ - - ----- r ~~=--+' 0.50% - ..~.~ ~-~~_._--_-._.~""~'~-..~ -- --- ---- 0.00% a- 1 m o. 3 m o. 6 m o. 1 yr. 2 yr. 3 yr. 5 yr. 7 yr. 1 Oyr. 30yr. Cities generally use a short horizon benchmark such as the two year Treasury Bill (6/30 - 1.11% up slightly from 0.81% at 3/31) or some similar measure. Our current portfolio yield is roughly 2.23%. This is calculated by taking the yield times the current value for each investment and dividing the resulting amount by the total portfolio value. As investments purchased in earlier years mature we will be able to replace them and lock into some longer term interest rates, but they may have to be reinvested at lower interest rates as market conditions change. It is very typical to lag the market as interest rates change. This will lead to more predictability in our interest earnings.