ERMUSR MISC 02-20-2007 - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Browse Search

®imersity The racial and ethnic diversity of the population is increasing in both Minne- sota and the nation. Minnesotans who identified themselves as non-White and/or Hispanic ("ethnic populations") grew from 6.3 percent in 1990 to 13.3 percent in 2004. While the per- centage is higher in the Metroplex, all regions experienced significant increases in ethnic populations. Minnesota's ethnic populations are rnuch younger than the White non- Hispanic population, with the majority at or younger than child-bearing age. Graph 1 compares the age distribution of our White non-Hispanic popula- tion to our ethnic populations. Because our ethnic populations are younger and have higher birth rates, they will account for an increasing share of Minnesota's growth into the future. By 2030, 19 percent of the state popu- lation is projected to be non-White and/or Hispanic. Immigration People moving to Minnesota from other states or countries are more diverse than the incumbent population. The number of legal international immigrants to Minnesota has been gradually increasing for two decades (see Graph 2~. If immigration to Minne- sota were to continue at 2005 levels, it could account for up to one-third of the state's projected population growth over the next 25 years. While Minnesota has relied heavily on migration for its population growth, federal and state policies will largely determine what role it plays in future growth. The attention paid to illegal immigration and federal immigration policy in the last five years and the push for radical policy reforms at all levels, make predictions about future immigra- tion rates the most uncertain element of population projections. Labor force The impending retirement of large numbers of Baby Boomers and the pro- jected slow-down of growth among those under age 64 has led the demogra- pher to project that the state's labor force will grow much more slowly in coming decades (see Chart 1). From 1990-2000, Older population is not very diverse ~~sue,fMr,~„e,~,~a c~I~~.~izooo Census White alone, not Hispanic Ethnic Populations ^ o 80 to 84 years i 70 to 74 years 60 to 64 years ~ 50 to 54 years ~ F F i 40 to 44 years 30 to 34 years i 1 20 to 24 years 10 to 14 years i Under 5 years -15% -10'/0 -5% 0'/0 5% 10% 15% -15% -30% -5% OYo 5% 10% 15% Males Females Males Females Toca1:4,337,743 Tocal:5S2,336 Minnesota labor force will grow more slowly- impact on economic growth; government services CCnnnn ~~nn Smre Dcnmprnplur:a O-(jrc 011U,UW 450,000 300,000 150,000 0 lsro-so lseasa r9so-0o zaoaro zorazo zozo-so Years Minnesota's labor force grew by roughly 375,000 people.The increase between 2020 and 2030 is projected to be only about one-fourth of that. Minnesota's state and local govern- ment labor forces today are typically older than that of the private sector (see article page 8). According to data obtained from the Public Employees Retirement Association (PERA), almost 37 percent of city employees are over 50 (excluding police and firefighters); and in 150 cities, at least half of the employees are over 50. Minnesota will soon have a labor shortage, and the labor market will be older, more diverse, and more dependent upon new Minnesotans. Implications These demographic trends have signifi- cant implications for cities' services, gov- ernance, and vitality. Municipal services are changing to meet the new needs of an older and more diverse population. Cities experiencing long-term popu- lation stagnation or decline are continu- ally adjusting services as their population ages. Housing and development patterns are changing as the population ages and needs change; much new housing devel- opment is high-density, pedestrian, and transit-friendly with shops and medical facilities close by. Cities are also creating new senior centers and senior program- ming to keep seniors active and involved. Cities with burgeoning ethnic popu- lations are working to overcome cultural differences in new residents' interactions with city government and expectations for city services. As the workforce ages and diversifies and the labor market tightens, cities must work to be competitive in attracting and -etaining high-quality workers. t Eric Willette is policy analysis manager with the League of Minnesota Cities. Phone: '651) 281-1245. E-mail: willette@lmnc. org. =or information about joining the LMC demographics Task Force, see page 17. DECEMItER 2l)~ fi IVI[NNESOTA CITIES