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W a w F a There Has Been No Increase in ~ Number of Atbntie Harricawes That Make Laedfall ~ • ~ • ~ .. , .. .. • 19N 1920 1940 1960 19010 2000 Year Figure 9: Annual number of Atlantic hurricanes that made landfall between 1900 and 2006 (21). Line is drawn at mean value. did that prior to the Medieval Climate Optimum, sea level would be expected to rise about 1 foot during the next 200 years. As shown in Figures 2, 11, and 12, the trends in glacier shorten- ing and sea level rise began a century before the 60-year 6-fold in- crease in hydrocarbon use, and have not changed during that increase. Hydrocarbon use could not have caused these trends. During the past 50 years, atmospheric C02 has increased by 22%. Much of that C02 increase is attributable to the 6-fold increase in human use of hydrocarbon energy. Figures 2, 3, 11, 12, and 13 show, however, that human use of hydrocarbons has not caused the observed increases in temperature. The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide has, however, had a substantial environmental effect. Atmospheric COZ fertilizes plants. Higher C02 enables plants to grow faster and larger and to live in drier climates. Plants provide food for animals, which are thereby also enhanced. The extent and diversity of plant and animal life have both increased substantially during the past half-century. Increased temperature has also mildly stimulated plant growth. Does a catastrophic amplification of these trends with damaging climatological consequences lie ahead? There are no experimental data that suggest this. There is also no experimentally validated theo- retical evidence of such an amplification. Predictions of catastrophic global warnvng are based on computer climate modeling, a branch of science still in its infancy. The empiri- cal evidence -actual measurements of Earth's temperature and cli- mate -shows no man-made warnung trend. Indeed, during four of the seven decades since 1940 when average COz levels steadily increased, U.S. average temperatures were actually decreasing. •• 00 a e 60 3 s s ,~ a d a There Hu Been No I~rease in Maximum Hurrkane Wind Speed or li Number of Vbknt Atlantic Hurrkanes • ~ ~ ~ 0 1950 1960 1970 19~ 1990 2000 Year m 0 to 8 0 z .C u ~_ a ~- a 0 oa O .S v 0 0 F u g Before Hydrocarbon ~ During Use Increase Increase ~ ~~-~ 4 Ctap~,i`~ ' P~ 2 ~ ~~.td-~~G~i @a ~ aGo¢c~~ F ® ~Qc~~ ~ 1 ,`~ 4 S~ ~ ,~ a 2 cas ~ ~ 4 ~ Oil i q 6 ~ Coal 2 e I>f00 1a50 1900 1950 2090 Year Figure 11: Global sea level measured by surface gauges between 1807 and 2002 (24) and by satellite between 1993 and 2006 (25). Satellite measure- ments are shown in gray and agree with tide gauge measurements. The over- all trend is an increase of 7 inches per century. Intermediate trends aze 9, 0, 12, 0, and 12 inches per century, respectively. This trend lags the tempera- ture increase, so it predates the increase in hydrocarbon use even more than is shown. It is unaffected by the very large increase in hydrocarbon use. While C02 levels have increased substantially and are expected to continue doing so and humans have been responsible for part of this increase, the effect on the environment has been benign. There is, however, one very dangerous possibility. Our industrial and technological civilization depends upon abun- dant, low-cost energy. This civilization has already brought unprece- dented prosperity to the people of the more developed nations. Billions of people in the less developed nations are now lifting them- selves from poverty by adopting this technology. Hydrocazbons are essential sources of energy to sustain and ex- tend prosperity. This is especially true of the developing nations, where available capital and technology are insufficient to meet rap- idly increasing energy needs without extensive use of hydrocarbon fuels. If, through misunderstanding of the underlying science and through misguided public fear and hysteria, mankind significantly ra- tions and restricts the use of hydrocarbons, the worldwide increase in prosperity will stop. The result would be vast human suffering and the loss of hundreds of millions of human lives. Moreover, the pros- perity of those in the developed countries would be greatly reduced. Mild ordinary natural increases in the Earth's temperature have occurred during the past two to three centuries. These have resulted in some improvements in overall climate and also some changes in 0 E y ao a s 'V .~ E 0 z 20 Before Hydrocarbon ~ During Use Increase Increa ~ ~~~ 16 ~ 12 Sea Level Increase ~~ ~~„~ Glaeier ~ ' l ; .Gas Shortening ' Oil Coal 1700 1730 18UU 185U MINI 1950 2UIN1 Year ffi a i 0 0 r as U F 0 Figure 10: Annual number of violent hurricanes and maximum attained wind speed during those hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean between 1944 and 2006 (22,23). There is no upwazd trend in either of these records. During this period, world hydrocarbon use increased 6-fold. Lines are mean values. Figure 12: Glacier shortening (4) and sea level rise (24,25). Gray area desig- nates estimated range of error in the sea level record. These measurements lag air temperature increases by about 20 years. So, the trends began more than a century before increases in hydrocarbon use. -3-