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Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ARTHUR B. ROBINSON, NOAH E. ROBINSON, AND WILLIE SOON Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, 2251 Dick George Road, Cave Junction, Oregon 97523 [arty@oism.org] ABSTRACT A review of the research literature concerning the environmental consequences of increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to the conclusion that increases during the 20th and early 21st centuries have produced no deleterious ef- fects upon Earth's weather and climate. Increased carbon diox- ide has, however, markedly increased plant growth. Predictions of harmful climatic effects due to future increases in hydrocar- bon use and minor greenhouse gases like C02 do not conform to current experimental knowledge. The environmental effects of rapid expansion of the nuclear and hydrocarbon energy indus- tries are discussed. SUMMARY Political leaders gathered in Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997 to consider a world treaty restricting human production of "greenhouse gases," chiefly carbon dioxide (COZ). They feared that COZ would result in "human-caused global warming" -hypothetical severe in- creases in Earth's temperatures, with disastrous environmental con- sequences. During the past 10 years, many political efforts have been made to force worldwide agreement to the Kyoto treaty. When we reviewed this subject in 1998 (1,2), existing satellite re- cords were short and were centered on a period of changing interme- diate temperature trends. Additional experimental data have now been obtained, so better answers to the questions raised by the hy- pothesis of "human-caused global warming" are now available. ;~ 25 0 y -0°. E F U t 0 Little Ice Age 24 23 22 3,000-Year Average 21 -1000 -500 0 300 1000 1500 2000 Year Figure 1: Surface temperatures in the Sargasso Sea, a 2 million square mile region of the Atlantic Ocean, with time resolution of 50 to 100 years and ending in 1975, as determined by isotope ratios of marine organism remains in sediment at the bottom of the sea (3). The horizontal line is the average temperature for this 3,000-yeaz period. The Little Ice Age and Medieval Cli- mate Optimum were naturally occurring, extended intervals of climate de- partures from the mean. A value of 0.25 °C, which is the change in Sazgasso Sea temperature between 1975 and 2006, has been added to the 1975 data in order to provide a 2006 temperature value. The average temperature of the Earth has varied within a range of about 3°C during the past 3,000 years. It is currently increasing as the Earth recovers from a period that is known as the Little Ice Age, as shown in Figure 1. George Washington and his army were at Valley Forge during the coldest era in 1,500 years, but even then the temper- ature was only about 1 ° Centigrade below the 3,000-year average. The most recent part of this warnvng period is reflected by short- Medieval Climate Optimum 2006 0 aR E ao 0 a V '~ a E L z _2e Betore Hydrocarbon ~ Daring Use Increase Increase -16 E- ~ --~ Glacier Shortening ; ~ a -l2 Occurs Before ~ tio ~ o o ~~ and Is Unaffected by ~ Go Hydrocarbon Use , ~40 oa ~.~' ~ , o~~~oa ~ ~~eq`c~o ~ r ' g -a `~~y~qc ~ Gas i 6 4 G~ ~~ ~ Oil 4 0 Coal 2 4 1 rw 1 ~7e IaW 1a39 IYW 19311 2UOB Year a cn 0 a U 0 F Figure 2: Average length of 169 glaciers from 1700 to 2000 (4). The princi- pal source of melt energy is solaz radiation. Variations in glacier mass and length are primarily due to temperature and precipitation (5,6). This melting trend lags the temperature increase by about 20 years, so it predates the 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use (7) even more than shown in the figure. Hydrocazbon use could not have caused this shortening trend. ening of world glaciers, as shown in Figure 2. Glaciers regularly lengthen and shorten in delayed correlation with cooling and warm- ing trends. Shortening lags temperature by about 20 years, so the cur- rent warming trend began in about 1800. Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun, which fluctuates in activity as shown in Figure 3; by the greenhouse effect, largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H20); and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood. While major greenhouse gas HZO substantially warms the Earth, minor greenhouse gases such as COZ U 2 C ~° a i .~ O 'o d a E F -t Q -2 d I Solar Activity 1 1 ~ Arctic Air 1 Temperature Temperature Correlates with 8 Sun, Not Hydrocarbon Use Gas 6 Oil q World Hydrocarbon Use \~ Coal 2 ---- --- 0 1at•Y IYYO 1Y[e IYgU 1YOU IYaU 2011® Year 374 E 3 372 ~ u c w 'v 370 as 368 c o e~ F '~ ~~ ~~ w U Figure 3: Arctic surface air temperature compared with total solaz irradiance as measured by sunspot cycle amplitude, sunspot cycle length, solar equato- rial rotation rate, fiaction of penumbral spots, and decay rate of the 11-yeaz sunspot cycle (8,9). Solaz irradiance correlates well with Arctic temperature, while hydrocazbon use (7) does not correlate. .journal ofAmerican Physicians and Surgeons (2007) 12, 79-90.