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s ^ ~ 'n er ette FORECASTS FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONMAKING 1729 H St. NW, Washington, DC 20006-3938 ~ kiplingerbiz.com ~ Vol. 85, No. 48 Dear Client: As the recession pushes joblessness to 9%... Big Labor is bracing for huge job losses. But the political climate is the best in years, and union leaders have an ambitious agenda to press. .: A sympathetic president is taking office. '' And Democrats hold large majorities in both houses of Congress, thanks in part to help and money provided by unions all over the country. The big prize is card-check legislation... a bid to make it much easier for unions to organize. It's amust-have change for leaders of organized labor, which now claims only 12% of employees as members. The bill would require employers to recognize a union if a majority of its workforce signed cards. Toda_y's law requires amonths-long effort ending in a secret vote. Unions say that gives firms time to pressure workers. Firms say card-check lets unions strong-arm workers. An overlooked clause also hurts companies. It requires binding_arbitration if a company and a new union can't reach a pact in four months. business is gearing up for a Huge iignt. And pap ssage of card-check is no sure thing, despite pledges of support from President-elect Obama and Democratic leaders. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has $30 million to woo the public and Congress. Some conservative Democratic senators may well side with the GOP and business. Compromise is the likely outcome...perhaps aplan to expedite elections while preserving the secret ballot, which business groups are unwilling to give up. Working in businesses' favor: Obama would rather put off a showdown. He has other, more pressing priorities, and he won't want to send any early signals that he's antibusiness or that he's a pushover for labor and other special interests. That will give businesses more time to win over the public and wavering senators. But it won't be delayed more than a _year, and labor holds the better hand. Other issues on labor's agenda will be approved much more quickly: Paid sick leave. Expect passage in 2008 of a bill requiring employers to provide at least seven days of sick leave. 40% of workers have no sick leave now. Pay equity. Obama promised...and v~~ill deliver...early action on legislation to reverse a Supreme Court ruling limiting the right to file pay discrimination suits. Ergonomics. Obama will resurrect a Clinton administration regulation designed to reduce repetitive motion injuries that was overturned by Republicans in 2001. At the time, employers said it would cost $100 billion a year to implement. FMLA. A proposed expansion of the Family and Medical Leave Act is iffier. Unions want it to cover small firms and apply to things such as school conferences. The Kiplinger Letter (ISSN 7526.7130) is published weekly far $1171one year, $199/two years. $26311hree years SUbSCllpti011 inquiries: 8U0-544-0155 or subservices@kiplingeccom by The Kiplinger Washington Editors. 1729 H Sl., NW. Washington, DC 20006-3936. Edit°ri81 illf°lRldti°n: Tel., 202-887-6462: Fax. 202-778-89'6; POSTMASTER: Send address changes to The Kiplinger Letter. P.O. Box 3295. Harlan. IA 51593. E-mail. le~tersnokiplingercom; or Web site, kiplingerbiz.com Washington, Nov. 26, 2008