ERMUSR MISC LETTER 07-15-2008 - Laserfiche WebLink

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Demographer says CRUW region will continue is grow Jennifer Edwards Staff Writer Minnesota is a prosperous state and those who live in the Caring Rivers United Way (CRUW), region enjoy a relatively high standazd of living, says State Demographer Tom Gillaspy, who spoke at a luncheon at the Big Lake American Legion last week. Gillaspy was invited back to speak at a Caring Rivers United Way community forum to update information he shared at a similaz forum last summer. CRUW hosted the forum to gain a better understanding of the people and communities they serve. The economic growth rate in Minnesota has exceeded the national average. Minnesota ranks among the best places in the world on many social and economic indicators, with education playing a key role in the state's success. "We are first among those with a high school diploma and 12th among those with at least a bachelors degree," Gillaspy said. "We are first in the number of people owning their own homes .and first with the percentage of people having health insurance." With 76.9% of those aged 16-64 employed, Minnesota ranks second in the nation in ,percentage of employment, has the eighth lowest poverty rate in the country and is ninth in median family income. "But past performance does not ensure future results," Gillaspy said. C R U W Continued From Page 1 and from now on, numbers of students entering school will begin to decline, although that is not true in this area Gillaspy said. Slower growth in the labor force will highlight the importance of growth in -pro- ductivity. Fewer people will retire at age 65 and there will be fewer workers available to replace those who do retire. Aging Not Normal "It is not normal for a society to age," Gillaspy said. "The first wave of the baby boom generation turns 65 in 2011. In 2008, Minnesota will see a 30% jump in workers turning age 62." Minnesota is one of the most homogeneous, least diverse states in the union. Most people who live in Minnesota were born here. While people from other states and other countries are moving in to Minnesota, most of those moving into Sherburne and Wright coun- ties are from Minnesota. The population of Wright and Sherburne counties has become more diverse, a trend which will continue. It is less diverse than most of the state. The population in place is aging, but the migrant population is young and vibrant. Over half the growth this decade will be among the minority popula- tion. "Population growth in the state is 6.3%. Population growth in Sherburne and Wright counties is 29.4%. Population growth in Monticello, Rogers and Buffalo is 46.1%," Gillaspy said. "And that strong growth is projected to con- tinue." From 2010 to 2020, most age groups will see growth in the Caring Rivers United Way region, and the azea will have a younger than average population than the rest of the state, the nation and most of Europe and Japan. Competition for the future workforce will increase and the migrant population will become increasingly impor- tant to the labor force. Life Cycle Changes Life cycle considerations will alter housing and spend- ing decisions as more house- holds become single person or empty nest couples living alone. The biggest growth in this azea will be among those living alone or without chil- dren. "We are about at the tip- ping point now," Gillaspy said. "The number of maz- ried with children families is about equal to the number of empty nesters." Dramatic increases in the cost of health care will also impact how and where peo- ple live and spend their money. With oil prices rising ever higher, commuting to work becomes a less viable option every day. The Northstar commuter train, which is scheduled to begin passenger service late in 2009, offers an alternative to driving. A severe slump in the housing market which has impacted .the community which has been hard hit by "Forces are at work which will impact the way people in this region live, work and compete in today's global market." An aging population, glob- alization and changes in technology will impact our economy, along with an upswing in immigration and a sharp increase in the cost of healthcare. "Minnesota has been a very successful state, espe- cially for a cold-weather state at the end of the road," said Gillaspy. "But we are in a period of rapid and critical change. " Across the state, there will be a decline in the number of students entering school. This year saw the largest graduating class in the state CRUVII Continued On Page 17 foreclosures. The housing slump will also effect the work force as people who have been clinging to equity in their homes to fund their retirement see that nest egg disappear. Payroll has been lagging behind the national average since 2006 and well behind the rising cost of food and essentials. All these condi- tions combine to keep people in the workforce longer than previous generations. "Rapid change results in great challenges and great opportunities," Gillaspy said. "We will know more after the 2010 census. It is very important everybody be counted." Gillaspy has been Minnesota's state demogra- pher since 1979. He earned his a Ph.D. in economics form Pennsylvania State University and specializes in economic demography. He also holds a masters degree in agricultural economics and earned his undergraduate degree in economics at the University of Texas, Austin. Sponsors of the communi- ty foram were the Big Lake Chamber of Commerce, the City of Big Lake, the Big Lake Business Retention and Expansion Committee, BOB 106 Radio, Elk River Chamber of Commerce and the Big Lake American Legion Post 147.