Prehistoric and Euroamerican Archaeology of Elk River, Minnesota: Current Knowlege and Probability Modeling

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developed areas as having low archaeological site probability, as these areas have already been significantly disturbed. These developed areas have been derived from the 1993 Minnesota DNR, Department of Forestry GAP Land Cover dataset. As such, there are newly developed areas that have not been incorporated into the model. Using the Model Users of the Elk River Archaeological Probability model should remember one very basic consideration. This is a probability model; it does not predict the presence or absence of archaeological sites, but only indicates where one is more likely or less likely to find such sites. Thus when planning, the model can be used to identify where archaeological sites are least likely to be, but field examination of such areas is still a necessity. Likewise, the model can be used to avoid development planning in areas of high archaeological potential, but the model cannot in and of itself identify areas of archaeological significance; again, field examination is required. Special caution should be used when working in already developed areas. The model sets these areas to a low probability by default, as the presence of extensive development increases the likelihood that any archaeological sites present have already been disturbed. There are, however, ample cases in Minnesota of archaeological sites being discovered in the midst of heavily developed areas, and field checks should not be neglected. For the simplest use of the model, individuals should consult the Generalitied Model of Archaeological Probability for Elk River (Maps 5 and 6). This model is the least specific, but as its name implies, most generally useful version. Additional reference can be made to the Post A.D. 300 Model of Archaeological Probability for Elk River (Maps 7 and 8), which includes additional parameters and may indicate differentiations not present in the General Model. Because of the heavy modification of streams and lakes in the northwestern quarter of the township, the model is less reliable for this area. Additionally, the model uses extant DNR hydrological maps, and consideration of man-made lakes and water courses, as well as modification of existing waters should be considered as part of any development or fieldwork plan. 25