Prehistoric and Euroamerican Archaeology of Elk River, Minnesota: Current Knowlege and Probability Modeling

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no substantial variations in the courses of the Mississippi and Elk rivers in the past 6000 years, we have not accounted for the moderate variations that may have occurred. For smaller streams and lakes, this assumption also holds true, with less certainty as to the age and stability of those streams and lakes. Because of its location in a transitional zone, we cannot model for vegetation coverage prior to A.D. 300, and have assumed moderate stability in vegetation coverage since that time. As a rule of thumb, the farther back in time one wishes to go, the less reliable the model becomes. Elk River Model Parameters The Archeological Probability model works with three basic parameters: proximity to water, topography, and vegetation coverage. Water: Until very recently proximity to a water source was an absolute essential for any sustainable usage of a landscape. This is the most heavily weighted category in the model, as proximity to water determines accessibility to a variety of essential resources. Not only does such proximity provide the obvious necessity of drinking water, it is also clear that other essential resources are found near water sources. These include the many useful plants of riparian and wetland areas as well as fish and fowl as food sources. Streams and rivers provide erosional areas where gravels and stones are uncovered; these were essential on a daily basis for prehistoric people who used the minerals as the base material for many of their tools. Additionally, for most of Minnesota history (pre 1850s), waterways, especially rivers like the Mississippi and Elk provided the major transportation routes; by canoes and water craft in warmer months, and by snow -shoeing in the colder months. For this model, three types of waters have been used: lakes, rivers and perennial streams. Areas closer to the water sources are more probable to contain archaeological sites than areas farther away. These categories are weighted, with rivers receiving the most emphasis because of their essential role in transportation, lakes receiving the next highest emphasis because of their abundant supply of natural resources, and perennial streams third. The model is, of course, limited by the accuracy and reliability of the datasets it relies upon. This is most telling in its use of hydrological data. As discussed above, it is to be expected that the courses of rivers and streams, as well as size and location of lake, has changed over time. The base hydrological data comes from mapping of current streams, 21