Prehistoric and Euroamerican Archaeology of Elk River, Minnesota: Current Knowlege and Probability Modeling

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Archaeological Probability Model Background and Theory The archaeological probability model is based on the types of environmental settings that past inhabitants of Elk River would have found most suitable for habitation and use. Models are simplified constructions of more complex phenomena, and begin with the most important factors that lead to a final outcome or result. For Elk River, certain environmental parameters provide strong factors in determining where peoples in the past lived. Humans in the pre -industrial eras were far more constrained by environmental conditions than we are today. In the past, people could not prosper at all locations on the landscape; in the present (with the benefit of heavy machinery and engineering skills) we are much more accustomed to modifying the landscape to fit our needs and desires. Many obvious constraints come to mind: humans cannot survive without access to perennial fresh water; farmers cannot prosper without arable land, villages can not be placed on precipitous slopes. We can develop reasonable probability models to depict a range of suitable environments in which humans could have prospered. Human behavior and human choice, on the other hand, are difficult to model, because they often cannot be predicted given the logic of an observer removed hundreds or even thousands of years, and because human behavior is not consistent. When human choice is introduced, many different outcomes are possible. For example, many people settle in locations for reasons of tradition or family ties, even when more environmentally amenable spots may exist ("it was good enough for grandpa and it's good enough for me"). This behavior, which we all know is common among humans, cannot be readily modeled. Combine this with the dearth of information on prehistoric settlements in the Elk River, and there is limited predictive value in the model. Rather, the purpose of the model is to assess the probability that specific kinds of locations and environments were favored by prior inhabitants of Elk River. In other words, the model can identify which areas would have been most amenable and thus most likely to have been utilized and inhabited in the past, but the model cannot determine whether such areas were actually utilized. Thus while the model is a useful planning tool, field studies are still essential. Elk River Environmental Settin 19