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Retail Trends <br />The City of Elk River is part of the Sherburne County <br />submarket. Since Elk River has the highest concentration <br />of population and jobs in the county, trends found in the <br />Sherburne County submarket can be applied to the City of <br />Elk River. Market rent per square foot in Sherburne County <br />($13.00 per square foot) is considerably less expensive <br />than the neighboring Twin Cities regional market ($17.20 <br />per square foot). Further, retail vacancy rates in Sherburne <br />County are at 3% and are below the region's average of <br />nearly 4%, indicating a healthy market with demand for <br />retail space. <br />A retail gap analysis compares availability of goods and <br />services (supply) with consumer expenditures (demand) <br />within the drive time market areas. When consumers <br />spend more than existing businesses can accommodate, <br />demand is greater than supply. This means residents are <br />spending money outside of the drive time market area. <br />This is referred to as leakage and is shown in the retail gap <br />summary table in green. Conversely, market saturation or <br />surplus occurs when the supply of retail space is greater <br />than demand. Surplus is indicated in red in the summary <br />table. <br />Within a five-minute drive of 5th Street and Highway 169 <br />(the generalized center point of the major commercial <br />areas in the city), Elk River's households are largely well - <br />served by existing retailers. Within Elk River's 10-minute <br />drivetime market area there is an annual leakage of over <br />$2 million for retail trade and food and drink, meaning <br />current demand for retail trade and food and drink exceeds <br />supply. Elk River's 20-minute drive time market area <br />(which includes the downtowns for Ramsey, Zimmerman, <br />Saint Michael, and Rogers) is well served by retail with a <br />surplus of $28.7 million for retail trade and food and drink. <br />Food and drink leakage occurring within the 10-minute <br />and 20-minute drive times highlight opportunity for addi- <br />tional dining options in Elk River. <br />It is important to note that leakage and surplus are an indi- <br />cation of consumer habits and market potential. However, <br />just because a community may experience leakage or <br />surplus in a specific retail category does not necessarily <br />indicate the local market can or cannot support those types <br />of businesses. Factors such as site availability, anticipated <br />growth, and changing shopper preferences determine if <br />opportunities exist to expand existing businesses or attract <br />new retailers. <br />Retail Submarket Overview <br />I. Bent nlCountville i� <br />2. Benton County 14. Northtown 13 <br />3. Brookdale I5. Pierce County i <br />24 <br />4. Burnsville 16. Ridgedale <br />S. Calhoun 17, <br />Rosedale <br />6. Chisago County 18. 5herburne County <br />7. Coon Rapids 19. Southdale <br />B. Eagan 20. 5t Croix County <br />9. Eden Prarie 21.5t Paul <br />10.Isanti County 22. Stearns County <br />11. Maple Grove 23.West 5t Paul <br />12. Maplewood 24.Woodbury <br />13. Minneapolis 25.Wright County <br />■ Twin Cities Regional Market El Sherburne County <br />Source: CoStar; Houseal Lavigne Associates <br />6% <br />5% <br />4% <br />B 3% <br />2% <br />1% <br />0r <br />Retail Vacancy Rate <br />2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 <br />■ Twin Cities Regional Market ■ Sherburne County <br />Source: CoStar; Houseal Lavigne Associates <br />Retail Gap Summary <br />RetaffTrade and -$147,262,014 $2,306,074-$28,725,192 <br />Food 8 Drink <br />RetaffTrade-$130,827,672-$4,248,568-$58,949,331 <br />Food 6 Drink-$16,434,342 $6,554,642 $30,244,140 <br />Source: Esri Business Analyst, Houseal Lavigne Associates <br />14 <br />191MITI ad9i7:1: 0AIMiVEi7111kIwo <br />Community Context • Elk River Comprehensive Plan <br />