5.1. PCSR 08-24-2021 - Laserfiche WebLink

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Retail Trends Retail Submarket Overview The City of Elk River is part of the Sherburne County submarket.Since Elk River has the highest concentration se of population and jobs in the County,trends found in the Sherburne County submarket can be applied to the City of Elk River.Market rent per square foot in Sherburne County ($13.00 per square foot)is considerably less expensive than the neighboring Twin Cities Regional Market($17.20 I.AppleMy/Lakeville per square foot).Further,retail vacancy rates in Sherburne 2.Benton County 3.Brookdale 14.North—n County are at 3%and are below the regions average of 4.Burnsville 15.Pierce County 5.Calhoun 16.Ridgedale nearly 4%, indicating a healthy market with demand for 6.Chisago County 17.Sherburne County 7.Coon Rapids I8.Southdale retail space. 8.Eagan 19.5'Croix County 9.Eden Prarie 20.St Paul 10.Isanti County 21.S'earns County A retail gap analysis compares availability of goods and II.Maple Grove 22.Wes'S'Paul 12.Maplevrood 23.Woodbury services(supply)with consumer expenditures(demand) 13.11inneap°lis 24.Wright County within the drive time market areas.When consumers ■ Twin Cities Regional Market El Sherburne County spend more than existing businesses can accommodate, Source:CoStar;Houseal Lavigne Associates demand is greater than supply.This means residents are spending money outside of the drive time market area. This is referred to as leakage and is shown in the retail gap summary table in green.Conversely,market saturation or Retail Vacancy Rate surplus occurs when the supply of retail space is greater 6% than demand.Surplus is indicated in red in the summary 5% table. National Average-(4.5%-------- - 4% verage(4.5%- 4% Within a five-minute drive of 5th Street and Highway 169 (the generalized center point of the major commercial 3% areas in the City),Elk River's households are largely well- served by existing retailers.Within Elk River's 10-minute 2% drivetime market area there is an annual leakage of over I $2 million for retail trade and food 6 drink,meaning current demand for retail trade and food S drink exceeds 0% supply.Elk River's 20-minute drive time market area 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (which includes the downtowns for Ramsey,Zimmerman, ■ Twin Cities Regional Market ■ Sherburne County Saint Michael,and Rogers)is well served by retail with a Source:CoStar;Houseal Lavigne Associates surplus of$28.7 million for retail trade and food 8 drink. Food 6 drink leakage occurring within the 10-minute and 20-minute drive times highlight opportunity for additional Retail Gap Summary dining options in Elk River. 2017 Gap by 5-Min I 0-Min 20-Min It is important to note that leakage and surplus are an indi- CategoryTbital cation of consumer habits and market potential.However, Retail Trade and -$147,262,014 $2,306,074 -$28,725,192 just because a community may experience leakage or Food 6 Drink surplus in a specific retail category does not necessarily Retail Trade -$130,827,672 -$4,248,568 -$58,949,331 indicate the local market can or cannot support those types Food 6 Drink -$16,434,342 $6,554,642 $30,244,140 of businesses.Factors such as site availability,anticipated growth,and changing shopper preferences determine if Source:Esri Business Analyst,Houseal Lavigne Associates opportunities exist to expand existing businesses or attract new retailers. 14 Community Context•Elk River Comprehensive Plan DRAFT FOR REVIEW ONLY