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Sherburne County Multi -Hazard Mitigation Plan, 2020 Use the foflowmng inforriv non on remperoture, preap+to non, and vulneeoble popufabons to help plan for future weorher•refared incidents, TEMPERATURE Their has been an IrKrease In whiter and summer temperatures. Our average winter loves are rising rapidN. and our coldest days of winter are ncm- warmer than +ace nave ever re carded. In fart. Minnesota winters are warming nearly 13 bmirs faster than our summers- The continued rise in winter temperatures will result in less snow pact; whtcti will increase chances for grassland/Wildfires as well as drought. The warmer winter temperatures will also have major consequences for our ecosys term, including nabve and invasive specieswhose growth. migration, and reproduclicin are tied to climate cues. The increase in Lyme disease across Minnesota a also likely influenced in part by the loss of our historical winters, due to a longer Ife-cycle period for ticks. Freeze -thaw cyder are hkely to 1wease a6 well. damaging roads. power hnes and infrastructure. and causing hazardous travel conditions. By mid-century our average summer highs will also see a substantial rise. coupled with an increase in more severe. prolonged heat waves that can contribute to drought and wildfires and pose a serious health threat. particularly to children and seniors. Here are temperature trends for HSEM Region 6: d >� 1981 2i710 2050 2t775 Cha a 1981-2010 2050-2U75 Ch e 811'F 88.7'F +7.7'F 7,6°F 17,27E 1 -9.6-F PRECIPITATION There has been an increase In "I awesge as vmIll as hemy precipitation everts, with longer perkrds of inItentenhl dry spells. Our historo aI rainfall patterns have changed substantially, giving rise to larger r ,-jrc frequent heavy downpours. Minnesota s nigh -density rain gauge network has captured a nearty four -fold increase in 'mega -fain" events just since the year 2000, compared to the previous three decades. Extreme rainfall events increase the probability of disaster -level flooding and new research suggests a recent increase m precipitation -triggered landslide achvRy in the metro region. However. [here is also an increased probability that by "cl-century heavy downpours will be separated in time by longer dry spells. particularly during the late growing season- Over the past century, the Midwest hasn't experienced a significant change in drought duration. However the average, number of days without precipitation is pmlected to increase in the future. leading Minnesota climate experts to state with moderate -to -high confidence that drought severity. coverage, and duration are likely to increase in the state. Modeling future precipitation amounts and patterns is Tess straight -forward compared to temperature. Some climate mode do a better lob than others representing rainfall for the Midwest. and available data sources only provide average estimates an a monthly scale masking the spikes in extremes that trigger flood and drought disasters. Trend data provided here for HSEM Region 6 are summarized for early surnmet when historically Minnesota receives most of pis ram'all and iror eadv fall when rainfall scarcity may threaten ,or ha,.,est: and Kcal agricultural economies: Precipitation for HSIM Region 6 Precipitation for HSEM Region 6 .' 1981.7010 050-Z,075 Chan e 1`81 20W r050.2075 Chan e 4,4" 5-0- +t).6" 2 9" 2 9- 0.0'" REGION 6I4 Page I L - 5