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<br /> <br />market that will continue its current trajectory, despite rising rates. It also suggests home prices <br />will most likely continue to rise in certain neighborhoods, but not others. <br /> <br />To address this issue, in February this year, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett announced his “Ten <br />Thousand Homes in Ten Years” affordable housing initiative, which is an effort to widen the <br />positive impacts from the city’s downtown building boom. The effects of this initiative remain to <br />be seen. <br /> <br />The answer: Maybe, it depends... <br /> <br />With interest rates and inflation expected to continue rising, building costs and home prices are <br />expected to rise as well. The most recent low in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate occurred in <br />September 2016 - a monthly average of about 3.81%. Assuming rates continue to go up, Freddie <br />Mac suggests (see here): <br /> <br />“Assuming the average scenario [the average of movements in housing and mortgage markets <br />during episodes of rate increases since 1990], the 30-year fixed rate would rise above 5.25% <br />before declining…Under this rate scenario, mortgage originations are expected to fall by 30%, <br />accompanied by more modest declines in home sales of 5%, and a decline in housing <br />construction starts of 11%. <br />Another possibility is that mortgage rates increase for a longer period and remain elevated for an <br />extended period…Under this scenario, mortgage rates are expected to increase by 238 basis <br />points, with a 49% drop in mortgage origination volume, a 14% decrease in home sales, and a <br />32% decline in housing starts.” <br />In short, when and by how much mortgage rates will move in the near future are still uncertain, <br />but it seems the expected increase in rates could suppress growth in the mortgage and housing <br />markets if (and this is a big if) the increase is large enough or lasts for long enough. Otherwise <br />there does not seem to be a strong correlation between rising rates and the housing market. For <br />now, though, getting a mortgage is still relatively cheap compared to historical standards. <br />Although there have been several news articles suggesting gains in the Case-Schiller U.S. <br />National Home Price Index have slowed (see here for an example), what may have a greater <br />near-term impact on the housing market is the new cap on deducting mortgage interest and state <br />and local property taxes – not necessarily rising rates. Keep in mind though, home prices may <br />fall, but it may not be enough to make them affordable for the average American.