ERMU Misc. 10-11-2005 - Laserfiche WebLink

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1 Th • • e � i n er Letterlip FORECASTS FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONMAKING 1729 H St NW, Washington, DC 20006-3938 • KiplingerForecasts.com •Vol. 82, No. 38 II II Dear Client: Washington, Sept. 23, 2005 ' Skilled workers will be harder to find CURRENT FORECASTS in 2006. . .and even more so in following years. GDP •; Up 3 3/0 this year,2.7%In'06 WORKERS The real problem lies in education. It. AND JOBS Some college or advanced training Interest rates NEW FORECAST will be needed for about 85% of new jobs. '' Primerosing by mid'06 to 7%by end IIwill only 60% of American students get that far. '05,7 S/o Businesses will need 2 million more scientists Inflation and engineers by 2012 and 2.4 million workers I Gaining3 5%1n'O5,30i°In'06 IIwith key manufacturing and production skills. Employment Current trends indicate demand won't be met. In'05,1'05,1Economy will add 2 3 8 million more Innllon mlobs '06 I Crunches already exist in health care. Trade deficit Rlsing to 5633 billion in '05 Nurses and pharmacists are notably scarce. And in construction, demand is soaring i Housing NEW FORECAST Sales rising to 8 3 million In'05, II for plumbers, bricklayers and technicians slight easing to 78 million In'06 handling air-conditioning and heating systems. slightik sales Gulf Coast rebuilding will make matters worse. Growth steady at 4%In'06 Also for machinists. Tool & die makers. Auto sales IP Drafting specialists. Welders. Electricians. IL Falling to 11e6s8 million in'06 Businesses are hungry for bookkeepers, Complete economic outlook at legal researchers and even data processors, KiplingerForecasts.com/outlooks I amid a lack of basic math and writing skills. Sporadic gaps are becoming chronic. Spot shortages. . .widespread. II In Missouri, Harley-Davidson can't find laser welder operators. In Idaho, a meat packer needs integrated systems managers. Trucking firms around the country are short of drivers, despite offering generous pay. There'll be fewer foreign workers available to fill the voids. II Tighter visa rules, which Congress won't change, and new opportunities in other countries are deterring qualified foreigners from working here. And baby-boomer retirements will worsen the skills shortage. II Firms can ease the blow by trying to keep older workers on the job longer, tailoring benefits to their needs and letting them phase in retirement. These workers can also mentor younger colleagues and help with training. II Don't expect the government to help much. Job-training programs are haphazard and ineffective. A Commerce Dept. summit on the problem in Dec. will bring a new plan but no fresh money to fund real changes. Firms have to act on their own, adding apprenticeships and training. II The skills shortage will take a toll on U.S. competitiveness. Fewer engineers and scientists means fewer innovations la of the kind that led to the Internet, bar codes and Doppler radar. Firms will send work overseas permanently. Just as steel jobs haven't come back to the U.S. , engineering jobs may not return, either. Irwr And fierce competition for employees is going to push up wages. The K,olmge,Lever(ISSN 1528 71301 is published weekly for$H4rone year,$15altwo years$2229hree years Subscription inquiries 800 544 0155 or sub services@kiplinger com by The Keplinger Washington Editors,1729 H SI NW,Washington,DC 20006 3938 Editorial information Tel 202-887 6462, Fax,202 778 8976, I Penodicals postage paid at Washington,DC POSTMASTER Send address changes to The Krphnger Lefler,PO Box 3295 Harlan IA 51593 E mail letters@krplmger com,or Web sae,KplmgerForecasts corn