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<br /> Th
<br /> e Kiplinger Letter;11
<br /> FORECASTS FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONMAKING
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<br /> 1729 H St. NW, Washington, DC 20006-3938 • KiplingerForecasts.com •Vol. 82, No. 30
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<br /> Dear Client: Washington, July 29, 2005
<br /> Fifteen new nuclear plants over 15 years LEGISLATIVE FORECASTS
<br /> t are likely. . .a wave of U.S. power projects
<br /> to meet a voracious appetite for electricity. ratHighway bill
<br /> The first. . .an abandoned reactor in Ala. Ready for Bush's signature
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<br /> being refurbished. . .will be ready in two years. Social Security overhaul
<br /> Two of three new plants in the works. . .in Va. , Dead, unless Bush drops
<br /> Miss. and Ill. . .will come onstream by 2012. 1 Private accounts
<br /> By that decade's end, a dozen more will follow. Energy bill
<br /> ' kyji Set for signing.Alaska drilling
<br /> In 2020, one-fourth of U.S. electricity willbeapprovedi- September
<br /> ENERGY Estate tax changes
<br /> will come from nuclear facilities. . .
<br /> still less than in 18 other countries now. Higher exemption,lower rates;
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<br /> South Korea gets 40% of its power from nukes. if not this year,then next
<br /> (?5They provide a whopping 78% of France's power. 'Tax break extensions
<br /> ,Sure to pass this fall
<br /> Nuclear generating capacity will zoom ..
<br /> II to 1400 billion kilowatt-hours by 2020, i Patriot Act
<br /> from 800 billion now. Already, U.S. capacity 1 An extension will give Bush
<br /> to make power is nearly twice that of France. most of what he wants
<br /> N Pension reform
<br /> What's behind nuclear's renaissance? . .Some relief for employers in'06
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<br /> Soaring energy demand. . .up 50% by 2020. xstemceiiresearc
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<br /> Low costs. At 1.680/kWh now, the cost Bush veto won't be overridden
<br /> of producing electricity at a nuclear plant
<br /> is headed toward just 1C/kWh as new, efficient facilities come on line.
<br /> In contrast, power from coal comes in at about 1.`92c/kWh. Natural gas,
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<br /> at 5.87c/kWh and rising. Moreover, future plants will cogenerate hydrogen
<br /> for fuel cells, adding value to nuclear production as technology advances.
<br /> IIWaning environmental objections. Green groups certainly still fret
<br /> about nuclear power, especially the disposal of waste. But growing worries
<br /> NUCLEAR POWERS UP about global warming and greenhouse gases
<br /> II FORECAST from coal and natural gas blunt those concerns.
<br /> 100% 'c ' Utilities increasingly favor emission-free nukes.
<br /> 80% And by early next decade, waste disposal issues
<br /> will be resolved, with storage at Yucca Mountain,
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<br /> 60% 11 n IN 11 ,; the proposed federal central repository in Nev.
<br /> Sources of
<br /> 40% Electric Energy
<br /> MydroelectrlcG Cheaper, easier government licensing procedures,
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<br /> =CoalFe including preapproval for standard plant
<br /> 20% -Nuclear designs,
<br /> I�Natural Gas plus a combinedprocess for gettingconstruction
<br /> Coal&Fuel ou
<br /> 0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 and operating licenses. Also coming. . .tax credits
<br /> Sources Energy Dept,ardour Capital,Kiphnger and loan guarantees to help with building costs.
<br /> ILI. Sure, the rebirth of nuclear power could miscarry. A big accident
<br /> or devastating terrorist strike on a reactor would quash prospects.
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<br /> But barring a disaster, the prognosis for the industry is good.
<br /> The Keplinger Letter(ISSN 1528 7130)is published weekly for 584/one year,$154liwo years,8222/three years SubScnption inquiries. 800-544-0155 or sub services@InplInger corn
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