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DRAFT November 21, 1995 Table 2 shows the various trip generation rates that were used in Elk River. • Two residential rates were used: one, 9.0 trips per household if the average household size in the TAZ was greater than 3.0 people, and the other, 8.5 trips per household for TAZs with average household sizes of 3.0 or less. Two rates were used to reflect the tendency of larger households to generate more trips. The generation rate for low density highway commercial was considerably lower than the rate for general highway commercial. This was meant to reflect on those areas further from the core of the City that are zoned highway commercial but have less intense land uses than general retail, such as auto dealerships and other showrooms. External trip generation was handled in an entirely different manner. Each important road crossing the City border was considered an external zone. The existing rip generation for each of these zones was simply the existing traffic volume count on that road at the City border. To estimate the external volumes at the point in time when ultimate development in the City of Elk River is achieved, the year of ultimate development had to be estimated. This was done by calculating the annual average population growth rate needed to achieve the U.S. Census Bureau year 2000 population projection and determining the number of years needed at this • growth rate to reach the estimated ultimate population. Since it is reasonable to assume that the annual percentage growth rate will decrease as the City approaches ultimate development, some years were added to the calculated number. The result was an estimate of ultimate development in 40 years. Realistically this is not likely to occur since gravel miners will probably still be operating in the northern part of the City in 40 years, and therefore large areas that are zoned residential will not yet be built upon. However, it is a reasonable time frame for the planning purpose of estimating external traffic volumes. A relationship was established between estimated population growth in the City of Elk River and counties around Elk River, and growth of external traffic volumes. Population forecasts from the State Demography Unit publication entitled "Minnesota Population Projections 1980-2010" were obtained for Sherburne, Wright, Hennepin, Anoka, Mille Lacs, Stearns and Benton Counties. Trends in population change were extended to the year 2030 for each county. For each external zone, the county population forecasts were used in varying degrees in conjunction with Elk River population forecasts to estimate traffic volume changes. Volume changes were calculated separately for external-external (E-E) and external-internal (E-I) trips (see Section II.C.2, Trip Distribution, for discussion of E-E and • E-I trips). CTP-230.156 -5- 230-156-80