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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />We find demand for 34 subsidized units, 101 affordable units and 210 market rate units. After <br />subtracting the proposed rental development (40 unit mixed income development) results in <br />demand for 34 subsidized units, 93 affordable units and 172 market rate units in Elk River <br />through 2025. <br />Estimated Demand for Independent/Few Service Senior Housing <br />TABLE HD -3 <br />MARKET RATE ADULT/FEW SERVICES HOUSING DEMAND <br />ELK RIVER <br />2017 & 2022 <br /># of Households w/ Incomes of >$35,000' <br /># of Households w/ Incomes of $24,999 to $34,999' <br />(times ) Homeownership Rate <br />(equals) Total Potential Market Base <br />(times) Potential Capture Rate <br />(equals) Demand Potential <br />Potential Demand from Market Area Residents <br />(plus Demand from Outside Market Area (25%)z <br />(equals) Total Demand Potential <br />(times) % by Product Type <br />(equals) Demand Potential by Product Type <br />(minus) Existing and Pending MR Active Adult Units3 <br />(equals) Excess Demand for MR Active Adult Units <br />Age of Householder <br />55-64 <br />65-74 <br />75+ <br />1,307 <br />741 <br />380 <br />+ 89 <br />83 <br />103 <br />x 78% <br />88% <br />63% <br />= 1,376 <br />814 <br />445 <br />x 0.5% <br />5.0% <br />15.0% <br />= 7 <br />41 <br />67 <br />114 <br />+ <br />38 <br />= <br />152 <br />Owner- <br />Renter - <br />Occupied <br />Occupied <br />x 40% <br />x 60% <br />= 61 <br />= 91 <br />Age of Householder <br />55-64 <br />1,329 <br />+ 91 <br />K 78% <br />65-74 <br />849 <br />89 <br />88% <br />75+ <br />401 <br />115 <br />63% <br />= 1,400 <br />927 <br />473 <br />x 0.5% <br />5.0% <br />15.0% <br />= 7 <br />46 <br />71 <br />= <br />124 <br />+ <br />41 <br />= <br />166 <br />Owner- <br />Renter - <br />Occupied <br />Occupied <br />x 40% <br />x <br />60% <br />= 66 <br />= <br />99 <br />- 111 - 77 111 - 77 <br />0 = 14 = 0 = 22 <br />' 2020 calculations define income -qualified households as all households with incomes greater than $40,000 and homeowner households with incomes <br />between $30,000 and $39,999. <br />Z Based on project manager interviews and historical trends. We estimate that roughly 40% of demand will come from outside the markt area. <br />3 Existing and pending projects are deducted at market equilibrium (95% occupancy). 2022 includes the Elk River Senior Living development currently <br />under construction. <br />Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC <br />Total demand for 14 renter occupied units in 2017 while demand for owner -occupied housing <br />is being absorbed by the current supply. Adjusting for inflation, we have estimated that <br />households with incomes of $40,000 or more and homeowners with incomes of $30,000 to <br />$39,999 would income qualify for market rate independent senior housing in 2022. It is pro- <br />jected demand for adult owner -occupied will continue to absorbed by existing units while de- <br />mand exists for 22 adult rental units in the City of Elk River through 2022. <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 45 <br />