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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />Estimated Demand for For -Sale Housing <br />TABLE HD-1 <br />FOR -SALE HOUSING DEMAND <br />ELK RIVER <br />2017 to 2025 <br />Demand from Projected Household Growth <br />Projected HH growth under age 65 in the Market Area 2017 to 2025' <br />415 <br />(times) % propensity to own <br />x 76.5% <br />(equals) Projected demand from new HH growth <br />= 317 <br />Demand from Existing Owner Households <br />Number of owner households (age 64 and younger) in Market Area (2017)3 <br />5,287 <br />(times) Estimated percent of owner turnover <br />x 30% <br />(equals) Total existing households projected to turnover <br />= 1,586 <br />(times) Estimated percent desiring new housing <br />x 10.0% <br />159 <br />(equals) Total demand from HH growth and existing HHs 2017 to 2025 <br />= 476 <br />(times) Demand from outside Elk River Market Area <br />15% <br />(equals) Total demand potential for ownership housing, 2017 to 2025 <br />560 <br />(times) Percent desiring for -sale single-family vs. multifamily6 <br />x 85% 15% <br />(equals) Total demand potential for new single-family & multifamily for -sale housing <br />= 476 84 <br />(minus) Units marketing or approved platted lots (undeveloped and developed lots)6 <br />161 4 <br />(equals) Excess demand for new general occupancy for -sale housing <br />= 315 80 <br />1 Estimated household growth based on data from Table D-1 as adjusted by Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC <br />z Pct. of owner households under the age of 65 (U.S. Census American Community Survey - 2016) <br />3 Estimate based on 2016 owner households under age 65 (US Census American Community Survey) <br />° Based on on turnover from 2010 American Community Survey for households moving over 10 -year period. <br />5 Based on preference for housing type and land availability <br />6Approved platted lot data does not account for the scattered lot supply which includes individual lots and lots in older <br />non -marketing subdivisions. <br />Multi -family demand includes demand for townhomes, detached townhomes, twinhomes, and condominium units. <br />Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC <br />Based on land available, building trends, and demographic shifts (increasing older adult popula- <br />tion), we project 85% of the for -sale owners will prefer traditional single-family product types <br />while the remaining 15% will prefer a maintenance -free multi -family product (i.e. twin homes, <br />townhomes, or condominiums). <br />We then subtract the current identified platted lots that are under construction or approved. <br />After subtracting the current lot supply in subdivisions (161 total single-family and four <br />multifamily lots) we find total demand through 2025 resulting in 315 single-family lots and 80 <br />multifamily lots. <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 43 <br />